Incorporating climate projections in the environmental risk assessment of pesticides in aquatic ecosystems

Self Cite

One of the outcomes of the 2021 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston Workshop on incorporating climate change predictions into ecological risk assessments (Stahl et al. forthcoming) was the key question of how to integrate ecological risk assessments that focus on contaminants with the environmental alterations from climate projections. This article summarizes the results of integrating selected direct and indirect effects of climate change into an existing Bayesian network previously used for ecological risk assessment. The existing Bayesian network Relative Risk Model (BN‐RRM) integrated the effects of two organophosphate pesticides (malathion and diazinon), water temperature, and dissolved oxygen levels on the Chinook salmon population in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA. The endpoint was defined as the entity, Yakima River metapopulation, and the attribute wasdefined as no decline to a subpopulation or the overall metapopulation. In this manner we addressed the management goal of no net loss of Chinook salmon, an iconic and protected species. Climate change‐induced changes in water quality parameters (temperature and dissolved oxygen levels) using model based on projected climatic conditions in the 2050s and 2080s by the use of a probabilistic model. Pesticide concentrations in the original model were modified assuming different scenarios of pest control strategies in the future, as climate change may alter pest numbers and species. Our results predict that future direct and indirect changes to the Yakima River Basin result in a higher probability that the salmon population will continue to not meet the management goal of no net loss. As indicated by the sensitivity analysis, the key driver in salmon population risk was found to be current and future changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen, with pesticide concentrations not as important.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporation of climate change into a multiple stressor risk assessment for the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population in the Yakima River, Washington, USA

Landis,

Mitchell,

Hader

et al. 2024

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“…This article is part of a series (Landis et al, 2023;Mentzel et al, 2023;Moe et al, 2023;Oldenkamp et al, 2023;Stahl et al, 2023) produced at a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston ® workshop in June 2022. The workshop goal and, more specifically, this article was to address the concern that potential environmental and ecological impacts associated with a changing climate were not being considered in national or international chemicals management processes.…”

Section: Aimmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast to the other articles in this special series (Landis et al, 2023; determine if and how any new approaches for incorporating climate change projections into ecological risk assessment could become a standard practice in chemicals management programs and policies. While the case studies provided by the other work groups in this workshop focused on spatial and temporal scales suitable for ecological risk assessment (Landis et al, 2023;Mentzel et al, 2023;Oldenkamp et al, 2023), our focus was on chemicals management at multiple geographic scales, which was particularly important as management occurs across scales. This was the backdrop for developing the EMC 4 conceptual framework.…”

Section: Implications and Path Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this series of articles, case studies have been provided for chinook salmon in the US Pacific Northwest (Landis et al, 2023), the Great Barrier Reef in Australia (Mentzel et al, 2023), pesticides in Norway (Oldenkamp et al, 2023), and have shown the methodology for incorporating climate change projections into a wide variety of ecological risk assessments at various spatial scales and for differing environmental situations. These methods could be operationalized in the near future as there appear to be little, if any, technical barriers to preclude their use for ecological risk assessments.…”

Section: Implications and Path Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…al., 2023;Moe et al, 2023;Oldenkamp et al, 2023;Stahl et al, 2023), our task was to Three case studies (e.g., global, regional, local) provide example applications of these questions. The answers to each question are not meant to be exhaustive but illustrative.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change, EMC⁴: A new conceptual framework contextualizing climate and chemical risk assessment and management

Cains,

Desrousseaux,

Boxall

et al. 2023

The environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change (EMC4) is a suggested conceptual framework for integrating climate change aspects into chemical risk management. The interaction of climate change and chemical risk brings together complex systems that are imperfectly understood by science. Making management decisions in this context is therefore difficult and often exacerbated by a lack of data. The consequences of poor decision‐making can be significant for both environmental and human health. This article reflects on the ways in which existing chemicals management systems consider climate change and proposes the EMC4 conceptual framework, which is a tool for decision‐makers operating at different spatial scales. Also presented are key questions raised by the tool to help the decision‐maker identify chemical risks from climate change, management options, and, importantly, the different types of actors that are instrumental in managing that risk. Case studies showing decision‐making at different spatial scales are also presented highlighting the conceptual framework's applicability to multiple scales. The United Nations Environment Programme's development of an intergovernmental Science Policy Panel on Chemicals and Waste has presented an opportunity to promote and generate research highlighting the impacts of chemicals and climate change interlinkages. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1–21. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach

Moe,

Brix,

Landis

et al. 2024

Self Cite

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This paper explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near‐ and long‐term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State‐of‐the‐art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate.