Incorporating climate velocity into the design of climate-smart networks of protected areas

Abstract

35Climate change is redistributing terrestrial and marine biodiversity and altering fundamental ecological 36 interactions. To adequately conserve biodiversity and promote its long-term persistence, protected areas should 37 account for the ecological implications of species' redistribution. Data paucity across many systems means that 38 achieving this goal requires generic metrics that represent likely responses of multiple taxa to climate change. 39Climate velocity is one such metric, reflecting potential species' range shifts at a generic level. Here, we explore 40 four approaches to incorporating climate velocity metrics into the design of protected areas using the 41 Mediterranean Sea as an illustrative example. Our methods are designed to meet two climate-smart planning 42 objectives: 1) protect climate refugia by selecting slow-moving climate velocity areas, and 2) maintain the 43 capacity of ecological systems to adapt by representing a suite of climate-velocity trajectory classes. We found 44 that incorporating climate velocity as a cost measure in Marxan is the best approach for selecting slower-moving 45 areas, which are good indicators of climate refugia. However, this approach fails to accommodate socio-46 economic cost data, and is probably impractical. Incorporating climate velocity as a boundary or as a feature 47 provides both selection of slower-moving areas and solutions with lower socio-economic cost. Finally, we were 48 able to design cost-effective networks of protected areas representing a suite of climate-velocity trajectories 49 classes, which have the potential to help species adapt to a changing climate. This work presents simple and 50 practical ways of including climate velocity in conservation plans on land and in the ocean to achieve the key 51 climate-smart objectives of protecting climate refugia and enhancing ecological resilience. 52 53