Incorporating rain-on-snow into the SWAT model results in more accurate simulations of hydrologic extremes

Myers, Daniel T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Robeson, Scott M.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126972

Cited by 26 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…A full description of the ROS modification, hydrology simulation, calibration, and evaluation can be found in Myers et al (2021b). In short, the SWAT source code was modified to include an energy budget equation for snowmelt from the SNOW-17 model (Anderson, 2006(Anderson, , 1973 that simulates ROS melt based on a function of air temperature, precipitation, wind, saturated vapor pressure, and atmospheric pressure.…”

Section: Hydrology Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…CC BY 4.0 License. hydrological simulations in the Great Lakes Basin due to the more accurate simulation of the timing of snowmelt (Myers et al, 2021b).…”

Section: Hydrology Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrology Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study uses a calibrated version of the SWAT hydrological model for the Great Lakes Basin previously developed in Myers et al (2021b), based on historic climate inputs (Maurer et al, 2007). In Myers et al (2021b), a sensitivity analysis was performed using the PAWN method (Pianosi and Wagener, 2015) that identified 24 sensitive parameters. The model was then calibrated at the daily time step with the A Multi-Algorithm Genetically Adaptive Multiobjective (AMALGAM) algorithm (Vrugt and Robinson, 2007) using 99 stations for streamflow and 50 stations for snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE).…”

Section: Hydrology Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrologic implications of projected changes in rain-on-snow melt for Great Lakes Basin watersheds

Myers

Ficklin

Robeson

2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Rain-on-snow (ROS) melt events reduce the amount of water stored in the snowpack while also exacerbating flooding. The hydrologic implications of changing ROS events in a warming climate, however, are still uncertain. This research used a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model, modified with energy budget equations to simulate ROS melt and forced with a climate model ensemble representing moderate greenhouse-gas concentrations, to simulate changes to ROS melt in the North American Great Lakes Basin from 1960–2099. The changes to ROS events between the historic period (1960–1999) and mid-century (2040–2069) represent an approximately 30 % reduction in melt in warmer, southern subbasins, but less than 5 % reduction in melt in colder, northern subbasins. Additionally, proportionally more rainfall reduces the formation of snowpacks, with area-weighted winter+spring rain-to-snow ratios rising from approximately 1.5 historically to 2.0 by the end of the 21st century. Areas with historic mean winter+spring air temperatures lower than -2 °C have ROS regimes that are resilient to 21st century warming projections, but ROS occurrence in areas that have mean winter+spring temperatures near the freezing point are sensitive to changing air temperatures. Also, relationships between changes in the timing of ROS melt and water yield endure throughout the spring but become weak by summer. As the influence of ROS melt events on hydrological systems is being altered in a changing climate, these conclusions are important to inform adaptive management of freshwater ecosystems and human uses in regions of the globe that are sensitive to changes in ROS events.

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Section: Hydrology Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…CC BY 4.0 License. hydrological simulations in the Great Lakes Basin due to the more accurate simulation of the timing of snowmelt (Myers et al, 2021b).…”

Section: Hydrology Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrology Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrology Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrologic implications of projected changes in rain-on-snow melt for Great Lakes Basin watersheds

Myers

Ficklin

Robeson

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…The worldwide applications of SWAT have revealed new research opportunities to develop the specific modules of the model to address the recognized weaknesses [53,54], such as proposing a flexible water and soil salinity module to predict salinity processes [55], applying one traditional response matrix approach to assume hydrological responses [56], coupling with the MODFLOW model to simulate groundwater flow [57], incorporating the rain-on-snow(ROS) model to assess how ROS melt affects winter floods [58], etc. However, the effect of forest runoff regulation in different slope zones has so far still not been considered, as the SWAT model neither adjusts the CN value of SCS for slope [59], nor considers the interaction and spatial distribution among patches.…”

Section: Description Of Swat-vrr Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Variation of Water and Sediment to Landscape Pattern in the Dapoling Watershed

et al. 2022

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The relationship between water-sediment processes and landscape pattern changes has currently become a research hotspot in low-carbon water and land resource optimization research. The SWAT-VRR model is a distributed hydrological model which better shows the effect of land use landscape change on hydrological processes in the watershed. In this paper, the hydrological models of the Dapoling watershed were built, the runoff and sediment yield from 2006 to 2011 were simulated, and the relationship between landscape patterns and water-sediment yield was analyzed. The results show that the SWAT-VRR model is more accurate and reasonable in describing runoff and sediment yield than the SWAT model. The sub-basins whose soil erosion is relatively light are mostly concentrated in the middle reaches with a slope mainly between 0–5°. The NP, PD, ED, SPIIT, SHEI, and SHDI of the watershed increased slightly, and the COHESION, AI, CONTAG, and LPI showed a certain decrease. The landscape pattern is further fragmented, with the degree of landscape heterogeneity increasing and the connection reducing. The runoff, sediment yield and surface runoff are all extremely significantly negatively correlated with forest, which implies that for more complicated patch shapes of forest which have longer boundaries connecting with the patches of other landscape types, the water and sediment processes are regulated more effectively. Therefore, it can be more productive to carry out research on the optimization of water and soil resources under the constraint of carbon emission based on the SWAT-VRR model.

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How extreme hydrological events correspond to climate extremes in the context of global warming: A case study in the Luanhe River Basin of North China

Gao,

Li,

Feng

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The consensus on climate warming is well‐established, and extreme values inherently encapsulate more information than averages. Against the backdrop of frequent extreme climate events, studying extreme values holds profound significance. This study aims to reveal the characteristics of extreme climate events and their role in triggering extreme hydrological events in the typical North China basin, that is, the Luanhe River Basin. Trends of 25 extreme climate indices during 1960–2018 are analysed using the Sen's slope and MK significance test to study the changing characteristics of extreme climate. Characteristics of extreme flood and dry events are examined, encompassing trend analyses at different time scales (seasonal, interannual, decadal) and concentration analysis. Finally, and most significantly, correlation analysis is conducted on extreme climate indices and features of extreme hydrological events, followed by principal component analysis of extreme climate indices, to precisely quantify the impact of extreme climate on the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. The results indicate a warming trend in extreme temperature indices, with a more significant rise in minimum temperatures compared to maximum temperatures. There is a significant decrease in precipitation, but precipitation at higher magnitudes is less affected by the overall reduction in total precipitation. Extreme dry events have markedly increased, particularly concentrated in winter with delayed occurrences, primarily induced by extreme temperature events, that is, warming effects. Conversely, extreme flood events have significantly decreased, mainly concentrated in summer and early autumn, predominantly caused by extreme precipitation and extreme high‐temperature events. The climate and hydrological conditions in the study area have become more extreme and complex. Severe river droughts may occur more frequently in winter, while extreme flooding may happen in summer. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to these developments.

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Incorporating rain-on-snow into the SWAT model results in more accurate simulations of hydrologic extremes

Cited by 26 publications

References 90 publications

Hydrologic implications of projected changes in rain-on-snow melt for Great Lakes Basin watersheds

Hydrologic implications of projected changes in rain-on-snow melt for Great Lakes Basin watersheds

Response of Variation of Water and Sediment to Landscape Pattern in the Dapoling Watershed

How extreme hydrological events correspond to climate extremes in the context of global warming: A case study in the Luanhe River Basin of North China

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