Increase in Intraseasonal Rainfall Driven by the Arabian Sea Warming in Recent Decades

Li, Baosheng; Zhou, Lei; Qin, Jianhuang; Murtugudde, Raghu

doi:10.1029/2022gl100536

Cited by 13 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…In contrast, in semi‐arid northwest India, the frequency of the occurrence of both heavy rain events and low and moderate rain events has increased over the past few decades in comparison to earlier periods (Figure 3d). This demonstrates that the increase in the mean rainfall over the region (Figure 3a) results from a qualitative change in the rainfall distribution facilitated by an increase in the frequency of mesoscale, synoptic and intraseasonal disturbances (Li et al., 2022) in the region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 87%

Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts

Rajesh,

Goswami

2023

Earth's Future

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In contrast to the “wet gets wetter and dry gets drier” paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi‐arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200% under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and is facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean (IO) warm pool. Mechanistically, the westward expansion of ISMR is a consequence of the episodic genesis over IO and the northward propagation of an expanded Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone on a sub‐seasonal time scale. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people in the region.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 87%

Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts

Rajesh,

Goswami

2023

Earth's Future

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“…5). Consequently, the regions become unstable and favorable for deep convection 24,25 . In addition, the LLJ is accompanied by strong westerly winds and a pronounced positive vorticity, which provide a track for the invasion of the low-pressure systems into Pakistan, and transport moisture from the BoB to further nourish the floods 26,27 .…”

Section: Dynamical Bounds Between Middle East Warming and Increasing ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan

Li,

Zhou,

Qin

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

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The edge of a monsoon region is usually highly sensitive to climate change. Pakistan, which is located on the northern edge of the Indian monsoon, is highly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and has witnessed several debilitating floods exacerbated by global warming in recent years. However, the mechanisms for the frequent Pakistan floods are yet not fully understood. Here, we show that the Middle East is undergoing an increase in land heating during spring, which is responsible for 46% of the intensified rainfall over Pakistan and northwestern India during 1979–2022. This springtime land warming causes a decline in sea level pressure (SLP), which strengthens the meridional SLP gradient between the Middle East and the southern Arabian Sea and drives the changes of low-level jet (LLJ) subsequently. The impact persists into summer and results in a northward shift of the monsoonal LLJ, accompanied by strong positive vorticity in the atmosphere and enhanced moisture supply to Pakistan. Consequently, the transition region between the summer monsoon in South Asia and the desert climate in West Asia is shifted northwestward, posing significantly enhanced risk of floods over Pakistan and northwestern India.

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“…In the third scenario, as the depression passes through the Arabian Sea, moisture from AS and BOB converges, accompanied by upper atmospheric circulation such as jet streams, resulting in precipitation over Pakistan (Otto et al 2023). Besides, the AS could also adjust the rainfall in Pakistan by changing the atmospheric circulation (Ullah and Gao 2012, Li et al 2022, Mallapaty 2022, Nanditha et al 2023.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of tropical sea surface temperature on extreme precipitation in Pakistan during the summer of 2022

Luo,

Liu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In August 2022, Pakistan experienced an unprecedented precipitation event that caused significant damage. Analysis of the observations reveals that this extreme rainfall is primarily driven by anomalous atmospheric zonal advection, resulting in an anomalous water vapor concentration in Pakistan. The climatological meridional advection also contributes to this flooding. Anomalous easterly winds and low-level vertical convection combine to be critical factors contributing to the moisture concentration over the country. Further investigation identifies the air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and abnormal warming over the Arabian Sea are crucial factors influencing this extreme flooding event. The concurrent occurrence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event and the warming sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the northern Arabian Sea intensifies the easterly winds over Pakistan, helping to transfer the anomalous water vapor from the remote region into Pakistan, ultimately contributing to the extreme flooding in 2022.

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Increase in Intraseasonal Rainfall Driven by the Arabian Sea Warming in Recent Decades

Cited by 13 publications

References 55 publications

Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts

Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts

Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan

The impact of tropical sea surface temperature on extreme precipitation in Pakistan during the summer of 2022

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