Aim: To explore and compare expired CO 2 (ECO 2 ) and heart rate (HR), during newborn resuscitation with bag-mask ventilation, as predictors of 24-h outcome.Methods: Observational study from March 2013 to June 2017 in a rural Tanzanian hospital. Side-stream measures of ECO 2 , ventilation parameters, HR, clinical information, and 24-h outcome were recorded in live born bag-mask ventilated newborns with initial HR < 120 bpm. We analysed the data using logistic regression models and compared areas under the receiver operating curves (AUC) for ECO 2 and HR within three selected time intervals after onset of ventilation (0À30 s, 30.1À60 s and 60.1À300 s).Results: Among 434 included newborns (median birth weight 3100 g), 378 were alive at 24 h, 56 had died. Both ECO 2 and HR were independently significant predictors of 24-h outcome, with no differences in AUCs. In the first 60 s of ventilation, ECO 2 added extra predictive information compared to HR alone. After 60 s, ECO 2 lost significance when adjusted for HR. In 70% of newborns with initial ECO 2 <2% and HR < 100 bpm, ECO 2 reached !2% before HR ! 100 bpm. Survival at 24 h was reduced by 17% per minute before ECO 2 reached !2% and 44% per minute before HR reached !100 bpm.Conclusions: Higher levels and a faster rise in ECO 2 and HR during newborn resuscitation were independently associated with improved survival compared to persisting low values. ECO 2 increased before HR and may serve as an earlier predictor of survival.