Increased ranking change in wheat breeding under climate change

Xiong, Wei; Reynolds, Matthew; Crossa, J.; Schulthess, Urs; Sonder, Kai; Montes, Carlo; Addimando, Nicoletta; Singh, Ravi P.; Ammar, Karim; Gérard, Bruno; Payne, Thomas

doi:10.1038/s41477-021-00988-w

Cited by 54 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In large parts of the world, local economies and food security are dependent on agriculture which is very sensitive to climate variations [1,2]. Both shifts in the mean climate as well as changes in the variability can considerably affect agricultural production [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact on wheat and maize growth in Ethiopia: A multi-model uncertainty analysis

et al. 2022

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Ethiopia’s economy is dominated by agriculture which is mainly rain-fed and subsistence. Climate change is expected to have an adverse impact particularly on crop production. Previous studies have shown large discrepancies in the magnitude and sometimes in the direction of the impact on crop production. We assessed the impact of climate change on growth and yield of maize and wheat in Ethiopia using a multi-crop model ensemble. The multi-model ensemble (n = 48) was set up using the agroecosystem modelling framework Expert-N. The framework is modular which facilitates combining different submodels for plant growth and soil processes. The multi-model ensemble was driven by climate change projections representing the mid of the century (2021–2050) from ten contrasting climate models downscaled to finer resolution. The contributions of different sources of uncertainty in crop yield prediction were quantified. The sensitivity of crop yield to elevated CO2, increased temperature, changes in precipitations and N fertilizer were also assessed. Our results indicate that grain yields were very sensitive to changes in [CO2], temperature and N fertilizer amounts where the responses were higher for wheat than maize. The response to change in precipitation was weak, which we attribute to the high water holding capacity of the soils due to high organic carbon contents at the study sites. This may provide the sufficient buffering capacity for extended time periods with low amounts of precipitation. Under the changing climate, wheat productivity will be a major challenge with a 36 to 40% reduction in grain yield by 2050 while the impact on maize was modest. A major part of the uncertainty in the projected impact could be attributed to differences in the crop growth models. A considerable fraction of the uncertainty could also be traced back to different soil water dynamics modeling approaches in the model ensemble, which is often ignored. Uncertainties varied among the studied crop species and cultivars as well. The study highlights significant impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Ethiopia whereby differences in crop growth models causes the large part of the uncertainties.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact on wheat and maize growth in Ethiopia: A multi-model uncertainty analysis

et al. 2022

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“…The new technologies of genome editing, shown to work well in wheat ( Gao, 2021 ; Li et al, 2021 ), offer the promise of inducing new targeted genetic variation in wheat in the near future. The mapping of important QTLs in a broad germplasm, rich datasets of genomes and transcriptome sequencing, future data on proteomics and metabolomics, computational tools including Artificial Intelligence, together with speed-breeding ( Watson et al, 2018 ), will enable breeding wheat more efficiently, including locally adapted varieties, to face the challenges of climate change ( Xiong et al, 2021 ). In summary, we can expect that breeding will accelerate to create new varieties that will contain new genetic variants, either induced or from wild wheat relatives.…”

Section: The Future Of Wheat Evolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution and origin of bread wheat

2022

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Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum, genome BBAADD) is a young hexaploid species formed only 8500-9000 years ago through hybridization between a domesticated free-threshing tetraploid progenitor, genome BBAA, and Aegilops tauschii, the diploid donor of the D subgenome. Very soon after its formation, it spread globally from its cradle in the fertile crescent into new habitats and climates, to become a staple food of humanity. This extraordinary global expansion was probably enabled by allopolyploidy that accelerated genetic novelty through the acquisition of new traits, new intergenomic interactions, and buffering of mutations, and by the attractiveness of bread wheat’s large, tasty, and nutritious grain with high baking quality. New genome sequences suggest that the elusive donor of the B subgenome is a distinct (unknown or extinct) species rather than a mosaic genome. We discuss the origin of the diploid and tetraploid progenitors of bread wheat and the conflicting genetic and archaeological evidence on where it was formed and which species was its free-threshing tetraploid progenitor. Wheat experienced many environmental changes throughout its evolution, therefore, while it might adapt to current climatic changes, efforts are needed to better use and conserve the vast gene pool of wheat biodiversity on which our food security depends.

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“…These three markers can be deployed into marker-assisted breeding or introgression pipeline programmes to incorporate heat resilience traits into elite cultivars. The fact that no yield penalty was identified under more favourable conditions adds value to their deployment, especially given the negative impact that has been documented in terms of yield stability under increasing temperatures using extensive international data (53). The donor lines for these markers will be selected using our introgression mapping approach to introduce minimal linkage drag alongside the traits of interest.…”

Section: Implications For Breeding For Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Exotic alleles contribute to heat tolerance in wheat under field conditions

Molero

Coombes

Joynson

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Global warming is one of the most significant threats to food security. With temperatures predicted to rise and extreme weather events becoming more common we must safeguard food production by developing crop varieties that are more tolerant to heat stress without compromising yield under favourable conditions. By evaluating 149 spring wheat lines in the field under yield potential and heat stressed conditions, we demonstrate how strategic integration of exotic material significantly increases yield under heat stress compared to elite lines, with no significant yield penalty under favourable conditions. Genome-wide association analysis revealed three marker trait associations, which together increase yield under heat stress by over 50% compared to lines without the advantageous alleles and was associated with approximately 2°C lower canopy temperature. We identified an Aegilops tauschii introgression underlying the most significant of these associations. By comparing overlapping recombination of this introgressed segment between lines, we identified a 1.49Mbp region of the introgression responsible for this association that increases yield under heat stress by 32.4%. The genes within this region were extracted from diverse Ae. tauschii genomes, revealing a novel Ae. tauschii MAPK gene, a SOC1 orthologue and a pair of type-B two-component response regulators. Incorporating these exotic alleles into breeding programmes could serve as a pre-emptive strategy to produce high yielding wheat cultivars that are resilient to the effects of future climate uncertainty with no yield penalty under favourable conditions.

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Increased ranking change in wheat breeding under climate change

Cited by 54 publications

References 25 publications

Climate change impact on wheat and maize growth in Ethiopia: A multi-model uncertainty analysis

Climate change impact on wheat and maize growth in Ethiopia: A multi-model uncertainty analysis

Evolution and origin of bread wheat

Exotic alleles contribute to heat tolerance in wheat under field conditions

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