There has been much uncertainty as to whether metastasis requires mutation at the time of spread. Here, we use clinical data to calculate the probability of the spread of melanoma and breast cancer cells. These calculations reveal that the probability of the spread of cancer cells is relatively high for small tumours (B1 event of spread for every 500 cells for melanomas of 0.1 mm) and declines as tumours increase in size (B1 event of spread for every 10 8 cells for melanomas of 12 mm). The probability of spread of breast cancer cells from the lymph nodes to the periphery is B1 event of spread for every 10 8 cells in the nodal masses, which have a mean diameter of 5 mm, while the probability of spread of cancer cells from the breast to the periphery when the primary masses are 5 mm is also B1 event of spread for every 10 8 cells. Thus, the occurrence of an event of spread from the breast to the lymph nodes appears not to increase the propensity of the progeny of those cells to spread from the lymph nodes to the periphery. These values indicate that the spread of human breast cancer and melanoma cells is unlikely to occur by a mechanism requiring mutation at the time of spread. There has been much uncertainty as to whether metastasis requires mutation at the time of spread (Cifone and Fidler, 1981;Fidler, 1983;Sobel, 1990;Welch et al, 2000;Yokota, 2000;Bernards and Weinberg, 2002;Couzin, 2003;Bernards, 2003;Van't Veer and Weigelt, 2003;Yang et al, 2004). Mutations have a number of characteristic features, in terms of the rates of their occurrence and other qualities, which are diagnostic: mutations are rare, a phenotype conferred on a cell by mutation is inherited by the progeny of the cell, and the rates of the appearance of phenotypes caused by mutations either remains constant over time for those phenotypes requiring only a single mutation, or increase in frequency for those phenotypes requiring the accumulation of multiple mutations. We have recently shown that from clinical data it is possible to measure the rates of metastatic spread, expressed in terms of the probability of spread per cell (Michaelson, 1999;Michaelson et al, 2002Michaelson et al, , 2003. Here we use this methology to measure the probability of spread per cell for human breast cancer and melanoma. The values of these probabilities are inconsistent with metastasis occurring by a process of mutation.