Increasing trends in regional heatwaves

Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Lewis, Sophie C.

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7

Cited by 941 publications

(557 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…As a consequence, Sweden experienced a very long warm period with an unusually high number of warm days. Similar pressure patterns to those observed in summer 2018 have previously been shown to be associated with warm temperature anomalies over different parts of Europe (Sousa et al, 2018;Zschenderlein et al, 2019); for example, Pfahl and Wernli (2012) found that most summer heatwaves (80 %) in northern Europe and Russia can be associated with atmospheric blocking situations. Sinclair et al (2019) concluded that the 2018 heatwave was not intensified by surface feed-R. A. I.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 82%

The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Two long-lasting high-pressure systems in summer 2018 led to persisting heatwaves over Scandinavia and other parts of Europe and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on agriculture, infrastructure, and human life. We use five climate model ensembles and the unique 263-year-long Stockholm temperature time series along with a composite 150-year-long time series for the whole of Sweden to set the latest heatwave in the summer of 2018 into historical perspective. With 263 years of data, we are able to grasp the pre-industrial period well and see a clear upward trend in temperature as well as upward trends in five heatwave indicators. With five climate model ensembles providing 20 580 simulated summers representing the latest 70 years, we analyse the likelihood of such a heat event and how unusual the 2018 Swedish summer actually was. We find that conditions such as those observed in summer 2018 are present in all climate model ensembles. An exception is the monthly mean temperature for May for which 2018 was warmer than any member in one of the five climate model ensembles. However, even if the ensembles generally contain individual years like 2018, the comparison shows that such conditions are rare. For the indices assessed here, anomalies such as those observed in 2018 occur in a maximum of 5 % of the ensemble members, sometimes even in less than 1 %. For all of the indices evaluated, we find that the probability of a summer such as that in 2018 has increased from relatively low values in the pre-industrial era (1861–1890, one ensemble) and the recent past (1951–1980, all five ensembles) to higher values in the most recent decades (1989–2018). An implication of this is that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer, such as the one observed 2018, occurring in Sweden. Despite this, we still find such summers in the pre-industrial climate in our simulations, albeit with a lower probability.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 82%

The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context

et al. 2020

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“…Another reasonable result of the temperature increase is expanding the areas suitable for viticulture to areas with higher altitudes, where the temperatures for vines are currently too low [ 22 ]. Besides the rise of the mean annual temperature, heatwaves during the crucial development stages of grape berry have increased in the last decades, and under enhanced global warming they are expected to worsen, becoming more frequent and more intense [ 30 , 31 ]. These prolonged periods of excessive heat events may have dramatic impacts on both the quality and the yield of grape production, despite the overall suitable weather conditions [ 13 , 31 ].…”

Section: Global Warming Impacts On Grapevine Phenology and Viticulmentioning

confidence: 99%

Grapevine Responses to Heat Stress and Global Warming

Venios

Korkas

Nisiotou

et al. 2020

Plants

127

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The potential effects of the forthcoming climate change include the rising of the average annual temperature and the accumulation of extreme weather events, like frequent and severe heatwaves, a phenomenon known as global warming. Temperature is an important environmental factor affecting almost all aspects of growth and development in plants. The grapevine (Vitis spp.) is quite sensitive to extreme temperatures. Over the current century, temperatures are projected to continue rising with negative impacts on viticulture. These consequences range from short-term effects on wine quality to long-term issues such as the suitability of certain varieties and the sustainability of viticulture in traditional wine regions. Many viticultural zones, particularly in Mediterranean climate regions, may not be suitable for growing winegrapes in the near future unless we develop heat-stress-adapted genotypes or identify and exploit stress-tolerant germplasm. Grapevines, like other plants, have developed strategies to maintain homeostasis and cope with high-temperature stress. These mechanisms include physiological adaptations and activation of signaling pathways and gene regulatory networks governing heat stress response and acquisition of thermotolerance. Here, we review the major impacts of global warming on grape phenology and viticulture and focus on the physiological and molecular responses of the grapevine to heat stress.

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“…As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, regional warming will intensify [•• 11 , 16 ]; models suggest that alterations in atmospheric dynamics may lead to large changes in precipitation, particularly in subtropical and mid-latitude regions. [ 17 – 19 ].…”

Section: Climate Change Hazards: Drought Heat Sea-level Rise and Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Balsari

Dresser

Lee

2020

Curr Envir Health Rpt

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Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

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Increasing trends in regional heatwaves

Cited by 941 publications

References 33 publications

The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context

The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context

Grapevine Responses to Heat Stress and Global Warming

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

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