Indirect benefits are a crucial consideration when evaluating SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates

Gallagher, Molly; Sieben, Andrew; Nelson, Kristin N.; Kraay, Alicia N M; Orenstein, Walter A.; Lopman, Ben; Handel, Andreas; Koelle, Katia

doi:10.1038/s41591-020-01172-x

Cited by 40 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…We explore a two-step optimization strategy to solve model ( 2 ). First, we solve the problem using the myopic strategy where we minimize daily outcomes iteratively for 400 days.…”

Section: Optimization Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited supply

Han

Cai

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Strategic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines is urgently needed, especially in light of the limited supply that is expected to last for most, if not the entire, 2021. Dynamically adapting the allocation strategy to the evolving epidemiological situation could thus be critical during this initial phase of vaccine rollout. We developed a data-driven mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore optimal vaccine prioritization strategies in China that aim at reducing COVID-19 burden measured through different metrics. We found that reactively adapting the vaccination program to the epidemiological situation (i.e., allocate vaccine to a target group before reaching full coverage of other groups with initial higher priority) can be highly beneficial as such strategies are capable to simultaneously achieve different objectives (e.g., minimizing the number of deaths and of infections). The highest priority categories are broadly consistent under different hypotheses about vaccine efficacy, differential vaccine efficacy in preventing infection vs. disease, vaccine hesitancy, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. Our findings also suggest that boosting the daily capacities up to 2.5 million courses (0.17% rollout speed) or higher could greatly reduce COVID-19 burden should a new wave start to unfold in China with reproduction number equal to 1.5 or lower. Finally, we estimate that a high vaccine supply in the early phase of the vaccination campaign is key to achieve large gains of strategic prioritizations.

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“…We explore a two-step optimization strategy to solve model ( 2 ). First, we solve the problem using the myopic strategy where we minimize daily outcomes iteratively for 400 days.…”

Section: Optimization Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vaccination is promising to end the COVID-19 pandemic while allowing restoring social activities 1,2 . However, the anticipated global vaccine capacity in 2021 would not be enough to vaccinate every human being on the planet 3,4 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited supply

Han

Cai

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Second, behavioral responses, also absent from most other vaccination analyses (e.g. 5, 6, 7 ), change both the magnitude of deaths, and the vaccination priorities, qualitatively. Figure 2 compares alternative prioritization schemes using calibrated BL model (Panel A) and its extension ‘Including Behavioral Response’ (panel B).…”

mentioning

confidence: 95%

Behavioral Responses to Risk Promote Vaccinating High-contact Individuals First

Rahmandad¹

2021

Preprint

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If COVID-19's reproduction number was constant, vaccinating elderly first minimized deaths. However, incorporating risk-driven behavior/policy changes enhances fit to data and prioritizes vaccinating high-contact individuals. Deaths grow exponentially until people are compelled to reduce contacts, stabilizing at levels obliging higher-contact groups to sufficiently cut interactions. Vaccinating those groups out of transmission saves lives and speeds everybody's return to normal life.

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“…As countries race to vaccinate a significant share of the population within the coming months, the basic reproduction number of the virus is hoped to decrease. This effect can be achieved by reducing the number of susceptible people, as well as by reducing viral loads and thereby viral shedding of post-vaccination infections, turning them less infectious 3–7 . However, the effect of vaccination on viral loads in COVID-19 post-vaccination infections is yet unknown 8 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load following vaccination

Levine-Tiefenbrun

Yelin

Katz

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Beyond their substantial protection of individual vaccinees, it is hoped that the COVID-19 vaccines would reduce viral load in breakthrough infections thereby further suppress onward transmission. Here, analyzing positive SARS-CoV-2 test results following inoculation with the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, we find that the viral load is reduced 4-fold for infections occurring 12-28 days after the first dose of vaccine. These reduced viral loads hint to lower infectiousness, further contributing to vaccine impact on virus spread.

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Indirect benefits are a crucial consideration when evaluating SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates

Cited by 40 publications

References 7 publications

Dynamic optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited supply

Dynamic optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited supply

Behavioral Responses to Risk Promote Vaccinating High-contact Individuals First

Decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load following vaccination

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