Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

Abstract

As climate change threatens species' persistence, predicting the potential for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an emerging area of research fuelled in part by developments in modelling frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological, genetic and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify limitations of current models and opportunities for further development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across studies: (i) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on adaptive potential; (ii) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid adaptation; and (iii) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally, we demonstrate the approach using simple simulations and provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools for understanding adaptation in changing seas.

Evolution in changing seas

“…Ultimately, the integration of oceanographic and eco-evolutionary frameworks is urgently needed to foster robust predictions of how organisms will respond to climate change, and to inform effective management strategies. Xuereb et al reviewed the use of eco-evolutionary individual-based models to achieve these goals, and highlighted opportunities for the development of models that advance our understanding of how oceanographic processes, genetic architecture, non-genetic inheritance, demography and multiple stressors interact to promote or constrain adaptation to environmental change [32]. Importantly, Xuereb et al also provided a simulation case study that illustrates how to incorporate patterns of connectivity based on oceanographic models into an eco-evolutionary model to predict the distribution of a species under different climate change scenarios [32].…”

“…Xuereb et al reviewed the use of eco-evolutionary individual-based models to achieve these goals, and highlighted opportunities for the development of models that advance our understanding of how oceanographic processes, genetic architecture, non-genetic inheritance, demography and multiple stressors interact to promote or constrain adaptation to environmental change [32]. Importantly, Xuereb et al also provided a simulation case study that illustrates how to incorporate patterns of connectivity based on oceanographic models into an eco-evolutionary model to predict the distribution of a species under different climate change scenarios [32]. Because population connectivity can strongly influence the sources and sinks of genetic variation that serve as the fuel of evolutionary change, it is essential that we better understand its role in shaping adaptation across multiple spatial and temporal scales.…”

Benefits of genetic data for spatial conservation planning in coastal habitats

“…Recent studies have begun to integrate some of these aspects of uncertainty into genetically informed SCP (Nielsen et al, 2020(Nielsen et al, , 2022Xuereb et al, 2021a). Moreover, forward-in-time simulations are promising approaches for predicting spatial genetic patterns relevant for SCP and could be used to test the potential impact of conservation actions under complex eco-evolutionary scenarios (Xuereb et al, 2021b), although there remains considerable uncertainty in the estimation of genetic and demographic parameters required for such simulations for the majority of marine species.…”

Moving beyond heritability in the search for coral adaptive potential

“…Some evolutionary models include simple species interactions such as competition between two coral species with different life histories (McManus et al, 2021;Walsworth et al, 2019) or focus on the interaction between the coral cnidarian hosts and their photosynthetic endosymbionts (Baskett et al, 2009;Day et al, 2008;Logan et al, 2021). Regardless of specific assumptions, general conclusions are obscured by the discrepancy between ecological models that generally assume traits do not change over time, and evolutionary models that consistently find that evolutionary adaptation is a critical component for long-term coral persistence (reviewed by Xuereb et al, 2021).…”