Individualized Treatment Allocation in Sequential Network Games

Abstract

Designing individualized allocation of treatments so as to maximize the equilibrium welfare of interacting agents has many policy-relevant applications. Focusing on sequential decision games of interacting agents, this paper develops a method to obtain optimal treatment assignment rules that maximize a social welfare criterion by evaluating stationary distributions of outcomes. Stationary distributions in sequential decision games are given by Gibbs distributions, which are difficult to optimize with respect to a treatment allocation due to analytical and computational complexity. We apply a variational approximation to the stationary distribution and optimize the approximated equilibrium welfare with respect to treatment allocation using a greedy optimization algorithm. We characterize the performance of the variational approximation, deriving a performance guarantee for the greedy optimization algorithm via a welfare regret bound. We establish the convergence rate of this bound. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed method in simulation exercises.