Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals

Abstract

BackgroundThe ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela has resulted in a collapse of the healthcare system and the re-emergence of previously controlled or eliminated infectious diseases. There has also been an exodus of Venezuelan international migrants in response to the crisis. We sought to describe the infectious disease risks faced by Venezuelan nationals and assess the international mobility patterns of the migrant population.MethodsWe synthesized data on recent infectious disease events in Venezuela and among international migrants from Venezuela, as well as on current country of residence among the migrant population. We used passenger-level itinerary data from the International Air Transport Association to evaluate trends in outbound air travel from Venezuela over time. We used two parameter-free mobility models, the radiation and impedance models, to estimate the expected population flows from Venezuelan cities to other major Latin American and Caribbean cities.ResultsOutbreaks of measles, diphtheria and malaria have been reported across Venezuela and other diseases, such as HIV and tuberculosis, are resurgent. Changes in migration in response to the crisis are apparent, with an increase in Venezuelan nationals living abroad, despite an overall decline in the number of outbound air passengers. The two models predicted different mobility patterns, but both highlighted the importance of Colombian cities as destinations for migrants and also showed that some migrants are expected to travel large distances. Despite the large distances that migrants may travel internationally, outbreaks associated with Venezuelan migrants have occurred primarily in countries proximate to Venezuela.ConclusionsUnderstanding where international migrants are relocating is critical, given the association between human mobility and the spread of infectious diseases. In data-limited situations, simple models can be useful for providing insights into population mobility and may help identify areas likely to receive a large number of migrants.

Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak

“…If rural populations have lower seroprevalence for ZIKV, as was shown in Suriname (Langerak et al, 2019), an inflow of rural inhabitants into Managua could increase the risk of ZIKV outbreaks. Uncertainty remains, as factors such as political instability can drive migration and influence disease transmission, as we currently observe in Venezuela and bordering countries (Tuite et al, 2018).…”

Risk assessment strategies for early detection and prediction of infectious disease outbreaks associated with climate change

“…Tourism is also affected by climate change, as changes in both home and travel destinations influence the push and pull of factors motivating people to travel and the potential for disease spread (13)(14)(15). Vectors and pathogens can inadvertently be transported through shipments by air, land and sea (16)(17)(18). Land and sea containers are known to support the invasion of mosquitoes because larva can develop in trapped standing water, and if no water exists, eggs can withstand desiccation for weeks to months (19,20).…”

Stratégie d’évaluation des risques servant à la détection précoce et à la prédiction des éclosions de maladies infectieuses associées aux changements climatiques

“…Le tourisme, tant dans les pays d'origine que dans les pays de destination, est également touché par les changements climatiques, qui modifient les facteurs antinomiques incitant les touristes à voyager et le potentiel de propagation des maladies (13)(14)(15). Sans le vouloir, on risque de transporter des vecteurs et des pathogènes dans le cadre des importations canadiennes par la voie des airs, par la voie terrestre et par bateau (16)(17)(18). Comme on le sait, les conteneurs terrestres et maritimes facilitent les invasions de moustiques parce que les larves peuvent se développer dans l'eau stagnante qu'ils contiennent et que, même en l'absence de liquide, leurs oeufs résistent à la déshydratation pendant des semaines, voire des mois (19,20).…”