Inference for ROC Curves Based on Estimated Predictive Indices

Abstract

We provide a comprehensive theory of conducting in-sample statistical inference about receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves that are based on predicted values from a first stage model with estimated parameters (such as a logit regression). The term "in-sample" refers to the practice of using the same data for model estimation (training) and subsequent evaluation, i.e., the construction of the ROC curve. We show that in this case the first stage estimation error has a generally non-negligible impact on the asymptotic distribution of the ROC curve and develop the appropriate pointwise and functional limit theory. We propose methods for simulating the distribution of the limit process and show how to use the results in practice in comparing ROC curves.

A tale of two recession-derivative indicators

“…The derived ROC curves from estimated probit probabilities will be subject to additional estimation errors, cf Hsu and Lieli (2021)Krzanowski and Hand (2009)…”