Inflation Persistence in India

Dua, Pami; Goel, Deepika

doi:10.1007/s40953-021-00237-z

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The results are in line with the studies of Bhat et al . (2018), Ramachandra and Kumar (2017), Dua and Goel (2021a) and (2021b). However, asymmetries have been observed between the responses of CPI and WPI subindices of inflation.…”

Section: Pre-covid-19 Impulse Response Functions Of Supply Shockmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic impact of the supply shock during COVID-19 pandemic in India

Sharma

Sachdeva

2023

JES

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PurposeThe study focuses on examining the impact of the supply shock on the Indian macroeconomic variables during the COVID-19 period.Design/methodology/approachTime-varying factor augmented vector autoregressive model has been employed to study the asymmetry in transmission of supply shock on Indian economy during pre- and post-COVID-19 times.FindingsThe authors find that with supply shock, retail food inflation outpaced in COVID-19 times. Production levels reported by IIP fell to abysmally low levels in the post-COVID-19 times when the economy stalled. The liquidity stimulus provided by the central bank led to the negative response of policy rates to the supply shocks during the COVID-19 times.Originality/valueThe study stands novel in examining the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Indian economy through the lenses of asymmetric transmission of supply shock during pre- and post-COVID-19 times.

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Section: Pre-covid-19 Impulse Response Functions Of Supply Shockmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic impact of the supply shock during COVID-19 pandemic in India

Sharma

Sachdeva

2023

JES

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“…Moreover, price countries also influence the inflation (Jackman et al 1981). Dua and Goel (2021) conducted an analysis on the determinants of inflation in India considering the monthly data from April 1996 to March 2017. The study employed the cointegration method to compute the determining factors of inflation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of Inflation: Evidence from Nepalese Data

Neupane¹

2022

Jjis

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This study focuses on the examination of the relationship between the inflation and its major determinants in Nepal namely, GDP at constant price, investment, broad money supply, remittance, exchange rate, interest rate and inflation of India considering their log form using the data from 1980 to 2020 A.D. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was adopted to examine whether the variables are stationary or not. The data under the consideration were integrated of different orders I (0) and I (1) so autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) and bounds test was employed to make the analysis of the data. Vector auto regression (VAR) lag selection criteria was employed for the selection of the optimum lag length. The short run results show that the broad money supply, exchange rate and inflation of India are the significant determinants. Moreover, the results of F-statistic bounds test shows that GDP at constant price, broad money supply, exchange rate and Indian inflation are the major determinants of inflation in the long-run. The negative and significant value of the error correction term (ECT) imply that, the deviation in the long run increment in the inflation is corrected in the succeeding year. In addition, the results of the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of square (CUSUMSQ) indicate the stability in the coefficients.

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An empirical investigation of Bangladesh’s inflation dynamics: evaluating persistence and identifying structural breaks

Rafa,

Basher

2024

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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We quantify two hypotheses: the “Friedman-Ball Hypothesis” and the “Cukierman-Meltzer Hypothesis,” in the context of Bangladesh. The first posits that an increase in inflation leads to greater inflation uncertainty, while the second asserts that inflation uncertainty causes an increase in inflation. Using monthly inflation data from June 1997 to July 2021, we find evidence supporting both hypotheses. Our analysis of inflation persistence and structural breaks reveals that inflation in Bangladesh exhibits high persistence throughout the entire sample period, but there is a decrease in persistence in two of the sub-samples after the breaks in March 2007 and April 2012. Moreover, Bangladesh’s inflation persistence is comparable to, and at times even lower than, that of its South and Southeast Asian neighboring countries. As policy implications of our findings, we emphasize the need for a more nuanced approach to monetary policy, including proactive interest rate management, implementation of a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, and the development of a flexible monetary policy strategy tailored to Bangladesh’s unique economic circumstances.

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Inflation Persistence in India

Cited by 5 publications

References 33 publications

Macroeconomic impact of the supply shock during COVID-19 pandemic in India

Macroeconomic impact of the supply shock during COVID-19 pandemic in India

Determinants of Inflation: Evidence from Nepalese Data

An empirical investigation of Bangladesh’s inflation dynamics: evaluating persistence and identifying structural breaks

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