Inflection point in climatic suitability of insect pest species in Europe suggests non‐linear responses to climate change

In order to clarify the effects of multi-scale climate change on the population distribution and ecological service function of Z.cucurbitae, this paper analyzed its suitable distribution area Z.cucurbitae in a wide scale using the MaxEnt ecological model. Z.cucurbitae were exposed under short-term high temperatures of 33°C, 37°C, 41°C and 45°C for 1h, which were set based on recorded high temperatures in the field. The effects of these temperatures on development and reproduction of Z.cucurbitae in successive three generations were evaluated. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the suitable regions of Z.cucurbitae included most of South America, southeast North America, sub-Saharan Africa, part of Oceania and southern coastal areas of Asia. Under two carbon emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the suitable area of Z.cucurbitae will expand compared to that under current environment and this expansion will generally be northwards. Short-term high temperature was not conducive to the development and reproduction of Z.cucurbitae. The F1 Z.cucurbitae exposed under 45°C for 1h stimulated its oviposition, and the offspring can still continue the population. When the offspring were continuously exposed to short-term high temperature until the F3, they could not oviposit. In the context of climate change, both large-scale and small-scale changes will affect the distribution and population breeding of Z.cucurbitae, which will lead to local sudden outbreak or migration disaster. Therefore, a broad-scale distribution analysis of all populations as a whole will result in a narrow ecological niche and may fail to predict the effects of some local small-scale habitat changes.

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“…The impact of climate change on population development can be linear or non-linear (Grünig et al 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Multi-Scale Climate Change on The Distribution of Invasive Insect Populations and The Development of Ecological Services: A Case Study of Zeugodacus Cucurbitae (Coquillett)

Lian

Wang

Zeng

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…We used 2 approaches to estimate habitat suitability for Japanese beetle. Our “physiological model” used a technique similar to the CLIMEX platform by relating specific physiological thresholds of Japanese beetle to climatic variables in a spatial context, identifying areas that could allow for survival and development (Kearney and Porter 2009, Grünig et al 2020). Our “correlative niche model” used the platform MAXENT to relate species occurrence records to environmental variables across geographic space (Peterson et al 2011).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential distribution and spread of Japanese beetle in Washington State

Zhu

Oeller

Wojahn

et al. 2023

Journal of Economic Entomology

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The Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman, 1841) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), was first detected in southern Washington State in 2020. Widespread trapping efforts ensued, and over 23,000 individuals were collected in both 2021 and 2022 in this region known for specialty crop production. The invasion of Japanese beetle is of major concern as it feeds on over 300 plant species and has shown an ability to spread across landscapes. Here, we created a habitat suitability model for Japanese beetle in Washington and used dispersal models to forecast invasion scenarios. Our models predict that the area of current establishment occurs in a region with highly suitable habitat. Moreover, vast areas of habitat that are likely highly suitable for Japanese beetle occur in coastal areas of western Washington, with medium to highly suitable habitat in central and eastern Washington. Dispersal models suggested that the beetle could spread throughout Washington within 20 years without management, which justifies quarantine and eradication measures. Timely map-based predictions can be useful tools to guide management of invasive species while also increasing citizen engagement to invaders.

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“…Understanding the factors that influence the distribution of species is essential for researchers to develop effective adaptation strategies to address the impacts of climate change [167]. Studying the distribution of the niches of pest species reveals future opportunities and risks under climate change and helps in the development of effective crop management strategies [168]. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are scientifically proven tools for predicting and assessing the impacts of climate change on flora and fauna [169,170].…”

Section: Assessment Of the Biological Invasionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climate Change on Introduced and Native Agricultural Invasive Insect Pests in Europe

Skendžić

Zovko

Živković

et al. 2021

Insects

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Climate change and invasive species are major environmental issues facing the world today. They represent the major threats for various types of ecosystems worldwide, mainly managed ecosystems such as agriculture. This study aims to examine the link between climate change and the biological invasion of insect pest species. Increased international trade systems and human mobility have led to increasing introduction rates of invasive insects while climate change could decrease barriers for their establishment and distribution. To mitigate environmental and economic damage it is important to understand the biotic and abiotic factors affecting the process of invasion (transport, introduction, establishment, and dispersal) in terms of climate change. We highlight the major biotic factors affecting the biological invasion process: diet breadth, phenological plasticity, and lifecycle strategies. Finally, we present alien insect pest invasion management that includes prevention, eradication, and assessment of the biological invasion in the form of modelling prediction tools.

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Inflection point in climatic suitability of insect pest species in Europe suggests non‐linear responses to climate change

Cited by 16 publications

References 97 publications

Effects of Multi-Scale Climate Change on The Distribution of Invasive Insect Populations and The Development of Ecological Services: A Case Study of Zeugodacus Cucurbitae (Coquillett)

Effects of Multi-Scale Climate Change on The Distribution of Invasive Insect Populations and The Development of Ecological Services: A Case Study of Zeugodacus Cucurbitae (Coquillett)

Potential distribution and spread of Japanese beetle in Washington State

Effect of Climate Change on Introduced and Native Agricultural Invasive Insect Pests in Europe

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