Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended‐Range Prediction of Strong and Long‐Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter

Ma, Xueying; Mu, Mu; Dai, Guokun; Han, Zhe; Li, Chunxiang; Jiang, Zhina

doi:10.1029/2021jd036282

Cited by 19 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…We note that the positive SLP anomaly pattern at lag −3 is very similar to Ural blocking (e.g. Luo et al 2016, 2017, Yao et al 2017, Peings 2019, Ma et al 2022, which has been treated as an important internal atmospheric variability in winter. To represent such a prior atmospheric circulation forcing, we projected daily anomalous SLP fields onto the positive SLP anomaly pattern at lag −3 (figure S4(a), the projected subarctic Eurasian area spanning 30 • -90 • N, 0 • -140 • E) to obtain the atmospheric forcing index I atm (figure S4(b)).…”

Section: Observed Lead-lag Relationship Between Bk Sea Ice and Atmosp...mentioning

confidence: 52%

Observed contribution of Barents-Kara sea ice loss to warm Arctic-cold Eurasia anomalies by submonthly processes in winter

Zhang

Gan

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern of surface air temperature anomalies is a prominent feature of the Eurasian climate variations during boreal winter. The interannual WACE anomalies are accompanied by sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara (BK) seas, however, the causality between them remains controversial because of large internal atmospheric variability over subarctic Eurasia in winter. Here we disentangle the contribution of BK sea ice loss to the WACE anomalies based on a statistical decomposition approach. An anticyclonic circulation anomaly over subarctic Eurasia that forces the WACE anomalies is found to reach its peak 3 days prior to BK sea ice loss. After excluding this prior atmospheric forcing signature, the East Asian cooling matures about 15 days later as a result of the weakened moisture transport associated with the enhanced BK downstream ridge and East Asian trough due to BK sea ice loss. The results suggest that BK sea ice loss contributes ~65% and ~81% of the WACE-related East Asian cooling and Arctic warming at interannual timescale, respectively, whereas the WACE-related cooling over central Eurasia primarily results from internal atmospheric variability. Such submonthly lagged East Asia cooling caused by BK sea ice loss could be helpful in predicting winter extreme cold events over East Asia.

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Section: Observed Lead-lag Relationship Between Bk Sea Ice and Atmosp...mentioning

confidence: 52%

Observed contribution of Barents-Kara sea ice loss to warm Arctic-cold Eurasia anomalies by submonthly processes in winter

Zhang

Gan

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…(2020), and Ma et al. (2022). There is one difference from previous studies according to the research objective, which is the initial perturbation.…”

Section: Experimental Design For Acquiring the Cnopmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…In other words, the CNOP-type initial uncertainties among the three cases may be similar if the objective function is only measured by the high-pressure or low-pressure changes. Such a deduction is based on the results of Ma et al (2022), in which the objective function is defined by the Ural blocking index and the CNOPs are similar among different cases. However, this conjecture needs to be further examined in future work.…”

Section: Cnop-type Initial Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extent of the Impact of Arctic Atmospheric Uncertainty on Extended‐Range Forecasting of Cold Events in East Asia

Han

Dai

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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The extended‐range predictability of three simulated extreme cold events in East Asia in the Community Atmosphere Model (version 4) control experiment, whose atmospheric circulation backgrounds are similar to two recent observational cases, is investigated. The results show that they have a predictability of four pentads. Then, we evaluate the extent of the forecast uncertainty in the 4th pentad caused by the initial atmospheric uncertainties in the Arctic, which are large due to sparse instrumental observations. The initial uncertainty leading to the largest forecast uncertainty is obtained by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method, and referred to as the CNOP‐type initial uncertainty. The forecast of the cold surge in the 4th pentad fails after adding the CNOP‐type initial uncertainty at day 0. In comparison, the forecast uncertainties are much weaker when the initial conditions are perturbed by noises, and the weaker influence may be due to the noises' lack of spatial structure. In terms of how the CNOP‐type initial uncertainty develops, a baroclinic structure is seen in the uncertainties on the first 2 days, followed by a propagating Rossby wave feature from the 2nd pentad to the 4th pentad. Meanwhile, synoptic transient eddy feedback also plays an essential role. The results suggest that the CNOP‐type initial uncertainty has potential to identify sensitive areas for targeted observations; plus, it could serve as a member of ensemble initial perturbations, since it indicates the largest uncertainty growth.

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“…He et al (2020) showed that Ural blockings and Eurasian below-average temperatures were likely more frequent in winters with deep Arctic warming than shallow, nearsurface warming over the BKS. Ma et al (2022) found that SIC perturbations in the Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Okhotsk Sea in winter were important for extended-range prediction of the strong and long-lasting Ural blocking formation, where negative (positive) SIC perturbations favored (inhibited) the Ural blocking formation four pentads later. Zhang R et al (2018) suggested that heavy (light) SIC in the Barents Sea in spring-summer favored more frequent (rare) Ural blocking in summer.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

A pitchfork-like relationship between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and Ural atmospheric circulation

Zhang

Huang

2023

Clim Dyn

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Atmospheric circulation monthly anomalies over the Ural region are key indicators of Eurasian climate anomalies. Here, whether there exists a one-to-two correspondence relationship that generally agrees with the supercritical pitchfork bifurcation model, referred to as a pitchfork-like relationship, between reduced sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Seas in specific months and the lagging Ural circulation anomalies is explored. Based on the monthly observational SIC data and two reanalyses during 1979/1980 − 2020/2021, two typical examples are found by estimating the joint probability density function. Results show that when the gradually reduced SIC in September (January) passes a critical threshold, the preferred Ural circulation patterns in October (February) exhibit a regime transition from the flat zonal westerlies to wavy westerlies with a Ural trough and wavy westerlies with a Ural ridge. Because both the barotropic and baroclinic conversion of energy from the climatological-mean flow to Ural circulation anomalies exhibit a regime transition from one regime to two regimes. It might be associated with the increased both positive and negative shear vorticity of background westerly wind over the Ural region before the regime transition, contributed by the thermodynamic effect of the SIC reduction. After the regime transition, positive and negative anomaly events of Ural atmospheric circulation occur with equal probability under the same SIC. Our results suggest an increased incidence of both positive and negative anomalies of Ural atmospheric circulation and also the Siberian High, under the recent SIC reduction, which implies a low predictability of Eurasian climate anomalies in October and February.

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Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended‐Range Prediction of Strong and Long‐Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter

Cited by 19 publications

References 62 publications

Observed contribution of Barents-Kara sea ice loss to warm Arctic-cold Eurasia anomalies by submonthly processes in winter

Observed contribution of Barents-Kara sea ice loss to warm Arctic-cold Eurasia anomalies by submonthly processes in winter

Extent of the Impact of Arctic Atmospheric Uncertainty on Extended‐Range Forecasting of Cold Events in East Asia

A pitchfork-like relationship between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and Ural atmospheric circulation

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