The temperature behavior of the natural microflora on the Mediterranean fish red mullet (Mullus barbatus) was examined as a case study. The growth of the spoilage bacteria Pseudomonas spp., Shewanella putrefaciens, Brochothrix thermosphacta, and lactic acid bacteria was modeled as a function of temperature and the concentration of carbon dioxide in modified atmosphere packaging. Combined models were developed and comparatively assessed based on polynomial, Belehradek, and Arrhenius equations. The activation energy parameter of the Arrhenius model, E A , was independent of the packaging atmosphere and ranged from 75 to 85 kJ/mol for the different bacteria, whereas the preexponential constant decreased exponentially with the packaging CO 2 concentration. We evaluated the applicability of the models developed by using experimental bacterial growth rates obtained from 42 independent experiments performed with three Mediterranean fish species and growth rates predicted from the models under the same temperature and packaging conditions. The accuracy factor and bias factor were used as statistical tools for evaluation, and the developed Arrhenius model and the Belehradek model were judged satisfactory overall.Predictive modeling is currently accepted as a useful method for describing quantitatively the effects of ecological determinants (e.g., temperature, water activity) on bacterial growth (20, 28). In particular, predictive microbiology has been used to predict the growth of specific spoilage microorganisms in order to determine the shelf life of various fish products (3,22). However, the development of specific spoilage bacteria in a fish ecosystem is a result of both environmental conditions and microbial competition (7,16). In fish packed aerobically competition occurs between members of an aerobic gramnegative flora (mainly pseudomonads and Shewanella putrefaciens). In fish packed under modified atmosphere packing (MAP) conditions competition occurs between members of a facultatively anaerobic gram-positive flora (such as Brochothrix thermosphacta and lactic acid bacteria). The bacteria mentioned above have been reported to be important specific spoilage bacteria of Mediterranean fish stored under MAP conditions or aerobically (6,13,22,23). Selection of a specific microflora eventually leads to spoilage at a rate that depends on pretreatment, packaging conditions, and temperature conditions during distribution and storage in the chill chain. Modeling the behavior of this microflora and quantitatively correlating it with shelf life can provide an effective tool for predicting chilled fish quality. To achieve this, it is necessary not only to identify the specific spoilage organisms but also to define the spoilage domain (i.e., the range of conditions, including microbial interactions, in which different groups of microorganisms are responsible for spoilage) (3). Most mathematical modeling studies have not allowed workers to predict quantitatively the growth behavior of a mixed naturally existing flora consisting...