Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland‐dependent species

Abstract

Abstract.Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

Multistate occupancy modeling improves understanding of amphibian breeding dynamics in the Greater Yellowstone Area

“…, Ray et al. ). After breeding, spotted frogs often remain at breeding sites, but sometimes move to neighboring aquatic habitats to forage and overwinter (Bull and Hayes , Pilliod et al.…”

“…Wetland survey methods are described in more detail in Ray et al. (). In brief, two observers surveyed each wetland independently on a single visit using visual observation and dip‐netting to detect amphibian breeding evidence (egg masses, larvae, etc.).…”

“…) to estimate evapotranspiration (evap; mm) and runoff (RO; mm) at the monthly time step (Ray et al. ). Evapotranspiration rates were also estimated from April to June.…”

“…Chorus frogs and spotted frogs were analyzed separately and, for breeding dynamics, we used the top models from Ray et al. () as a baseline from which we constructed our model set.…”

Ecological monitoring and evidence‐based decision‐making in America's National Parks: highlights of the Special Feature

“…This is particularly evident in the papers about global change impacts on parks. Ray et al (2016) describe climate change impacts on amphibian wetland occupancy vital rates in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and Weissinger et al (2016) describe drought-induced losses in groundwater recharge and springs in Arches National Park. Rodhouse et al (2016) present this alternatively as climate change velocity, in the context of bat conservation, which has the potential to shift species distributions and depress fecundity in parks of the arid west.…”