Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

Chen, Hong; Wu, Yi-Kai; Li, Tim

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-2986-x

Cited by 45 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…3c, d, green bars), re-confirming that more and more TCs form over the northwestern WNP since 1998 (Fig. A3) from another angle, which is consistent with previous studies (e.g., Hsu et al 2014;Choi et al 2015Choi et al , 2017He et al 2015;Hong et al 2016;Zhao and Wang 2016;Huangfu et al 2017).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

“…Over the WNP and the central North Pacific, the mean SST has significantly increased since 1998, together with a robust cooling over the central tropical Pacific (Fig. 4a, b), which is generally considered to be related to the late-1990s' Pacific decadal variability (e.g., Wang et al 2013, Hsu et al 2014He et al 2015;Hu et al 2016a;Hong et al 2014Hong et al , 2016Zhao and Wang 2016). Moreover, the patterns of ENSO-related decadal difference ( Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4d; Fig. A4b), with a shape related to PDO-like and CP La Niña-like backgrounds, which might be responsible for the interdecadal changes of the WNP TC activity (e.g., Hsu et al 2014;He et al 2015;Hong et al 2016;Zhao and Wang 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, Zhang et al (2014) demonstrated that southern China had experienced increasing autumn drought due to the ENSO regime shift in the past decades. Given that the East Asia autumn rainfall is closely linked with the WNP TC activity (Wu et al 2005;Hong et al 2016), it is doubtful that any shift in ENSO flavor can contribute to the change in autumn WNP TCLs via changing TUTT and/or MT.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the interdecadal shift of WNP TCLs since the late-1990s has been widely studied (e.g., Chan 2013, Hsu et al 2014;Choi et al 2015Choi et al , 2017He et al 2015;Hong et al 2016;Zhao and Wang 2016;Huangfu et al 2017), these studies focused on the TC/typhoon activity associated with either ENSO phases or combined phases of PDO and ENSO (e.g., Zhao and Wang 2016). The combined effects of TUTT and MT modulated by shifting ENSO (i.e., two types of La Niña and two types of El Niño) on the concurrent WNP TCL change, however, have not been well investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

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During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

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Significant Aerosol Influence on the Recent Decadal Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific

Takahashi

Mori

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Over the past two decades, the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) has decreased markedly in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (WNP) as a component of the interdecadal variation. This decrease has partially been explained by an internal low‐frequency variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific, but influences of external forcing remain unclear. Here we show that past changes in sulfate aerosol emissions contributed approximately 60% of the observed decreasing trends in TC genesis frequency in the southeastern WNP for 1992–2011, using multiple simulations by a global climate model. This decrease was mainly attributed to the increased vertical wind shear and decreased low‐level vorticity, associated with a trans‐basin multidecadal SST change driven by aerosol forcing. The near‐future projection shows that the aerosol forcing still has some potential influence on decadal TC change, but the projected decreasing frequency is mainly due to increasing greenhouse gases forcing.

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Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

Cao

Liu

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Previous study has suggested a northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. This study replenishes two mechanisms to explain this inter‐decadal change in the WNP TC genesis position. The first mechanism is related to the mean state change. According to observational analysis and numerical simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric general circulation model, a La Niña‐type Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change and the northern Atlantic Ocean warming in the late 1990s cause a dipole pattern of lower‐level circulation change, with cyclone over the northwestern WNP and anticyclone over the southeastern WNP. This pattern is favourable for more TC genesis in the northwestern WNP. The sensitivity experiments show that the contribution from the Pacific Ocean is larger than that from the northern Atlantic Ocean. The second mechanism is related to the change in the intra‐seasonal oscillation intensity, particularly the quasi‐biweekly variation. The activity of intra‐seasonal oscillations over the southeastern WNP shows a decadal decrease around the late 1990s. Meantime, when the intra‐seasonal oscillations with tilted structure move northwestwards, they provide a favourable condition for TC genesis to be located more northwestwards after the late 1990s.

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Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

Cited by 45 publications

References 35 publications

Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

Significant Aerosol Influence on the Recent Decadal Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific

Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

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