To quantify the junior-to-senior successful transition rate in swimming sprinting events in elite European performers.
DesignRetrospective analysis of publicly available competition data collected between 2004 and 2019.
MethodThe yearly performance of 6631 European swimmers (females = 41.8% of the sample) competing in 50 and 100m freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were included in the analysis. The junior-to-senior transition rate was determined as the number of elite junior athletes that maintained their elite status in adulthood. To investigate how the definition of elite may affect the calculation of the transition rate, we operationally defined elite athletes as those ranked in the all-time top 10, 25, 50, and 100 in their category. We also calculated the correlation between junior and senior performances.
ResultsThe average transition rates ranged, depending on age of reference, from 10 to 26% in males and from 23 to 33% in females. The transition rate for top 100 junior swimmers was greater than for top 10. In general, the 50m distance showed a slightly lower transition rate compared to the 100m distance.Depending on the age of reference, low-to-moderate correlations were observed between junior and senior peak performances.
ConclusionsMost elite junior athletes did not maintain the elite level in adulthood. Except for the last year of the junior category (18 yrs for males and 17 yrs for females), junior performances are poorly related to senior ones.