Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning

Pappis, Ioannis; Sahlberg, Andreas; Walle, Tewodros; Broad, Oliver; Eludoyin, Elusiyan; Howells, Mark; Usher, Will

doi:10.3390/en14041209

Cited by 33 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…There were four scenarios developed and examined in this project, which are New Policy, Slowdown, Big Business, and High Ambition, capturing different levels of electrification, capital costs in power generation technologies, discount rates, levels of exported electricity, and the implementation year of future power plants. These are mainly driven by differences in future electricity demand, achieving universal access in different years, electricity consumption per capita, availability of future power generation projects, discount rates, and technology cost changes over time [7,28].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Hydropower-Dominated Power System—The Case of Ethiopia

et al. 2022

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The Ethiopia energy mix is dominated by hydro-generation, which is largely reliant on water resources and their availability. This article aims to examine the impacts of severe drought on electric power generation by developing a Drought Scenario. OSeMOSYS (an open source energy modelling tool) was used to perform the analyses. The results were then compared with an existing reference scenario called “New Policy Scenario”. The study looked at how power generation and CO2 emissions would be altered in the future if reservoir capacity was halved due to drought. Taking this into account, the renewable energy share decreased from its 90% in 2050 to 81% in 2065, which had been 98% to 89% in the case of New Policy Scenario. In another case, CO2 emissions also increased from 0.42 Mt CO2 in 2015 to 7.3 Mt CO2 in 2065, a 3.3 Mt CO2 increase as compared to the New Scenario. The results showed how a prolonged period of drought would reduce the river flows and lead to an energy transition that may necessitate the installation of other concurrent alternative power plants. The study suggested ways to approach energy mix, particularly for countries with hydro-dominated power generation and those experiencing drought.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Hydropower-Dominated Power System—The Case of Ethiopia

et al. 2022

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“…By linking the two tools, OSeMOSYS and GEP, the electri cation mix between grid (in terms of share), mini-grid and off-grid technology-speci c which supplies the residential electricity demands in the current un-electri ed population de ned in GEP is fed into the OSeMOSYS model to identify the leastcost electri cation mix (grid components) [20], [25], [51].…”

Section: Geospatial Electri Cation Outlook (Gep)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They can also measure the socioeconomics (e.g., job creation) of different energy transition pathways [21], [22]. Lastly, considering the spatial dimension of energy access (location and size of un-electri ed population, geophysical parameters and technology costs) can improve the medium-to-long-term assessments of least-cost power system expansion in an energy model [23]- [25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rocco et. al [35] and Pappis et al [25] examined energy access scenarios for Tanzania and Ethiopia, accordingly modeling only the power sector using OSeMOSYS and geospatial data to determine the electricity demand projections and the optimal allocation of power generation technologies. Similarly, the analysis is conducted only on a national level, without considering the trade implications on a continental scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Strategic low-cost energy investment opportunities and challenges towards achieving universal access (SDG7) in each African nation

Pappis

2022

Preprint

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Strategic energy planning to achieve universal access and cover the future energy needs in each African nation is essential to lead to effective, sustainable energy decisions to formulate mitigation and adaptation climate change policy measures. Africa can not afford a cost-increasing green energy transition pathway towards achieving SDG7. In this analysis, least-cost power generation investment options using energy systems analysis enhanced with geospatial data for each African nation are identified, considering different levels of electricity consumption per capita (Low, High) and costs of renewables (New Policies, Renewable Deployment scenarios). The power generation capacity needs to increase between 211GW (NPLs) and 302GW (RDHs) during 2021-2030 to achieve SDG7 in Africa, leading to electricity generation to rise between 6,221PJ (NPLs) - 7,527PJ (NPHs) by 2030. Higher electricity consumption levels lead to higher penetration of fossil fuel technologies in the power mix of Africa. To achieve the same electricity demand levels, decreasing renewables' costs can assist in a less carbon-intensive power system, although higher capacity is needed. However, Africa is still hard to achieve its green revolution. Depending on the scenario, grid-connected technologies are estimated to supply approximately 85%-90% of the total electricity generated in Africa in 2030, mini-grid technologies roughly 1%-6%, and stand-alone technologies 8%-11%. Solar off-grid and solar hybrid mini-grid technologies play an essential role in electrifying the current un-electrified settlements in residential areas. Natural gas will be the dominant fossil fuel source by 2030, while the decreasing costs of renewables make solar overtake hydropower. Higher penetration of renewable energy sources in the energy mix creates local jobs and increases cost-efficiency. Approximately 6.9 million (NPLs) to 9.6 million (RDHs) direct jobs can be created in Africa by expanding the power sector during 2020-2030 across the supply chain. Increasing the electricity consumption levels in Africa leads to higher total system costs, but it is estimated to create more jobs that can ensure political and societal stability. Also, the decreasing costs of renewables could further increase the penetration of renewables in the energy mix, leading to a higher number of jobs.

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“…Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access and an inefficient power transmission network. Electricity access has increased by only 30% over the past 25 years and it reached 45% in 2018 [1]. ere are over 350,000 registered customers who have been waiting for a connection for the past many years, of which about 50,000 have already paid the full-connection fee [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Techno-Economic Comparisons of HVAC and Simultaneous AC-DC Transmission

Asmare

Gessesse

Getie

2022

Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering

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Electric power consumption has been increasing rapidly across the globe; this increase specially accelerated in the last decade. Consequently, existing transmission lines are becoming overloaded beyond their power transfer capability. The inadequacy of the transmission lines has contributed to power interruptions and instability of the power system. Construction of new transmission lines can be a solution to mitigate these problems. However, to build the whole structure of a new transmission line, a huge investment is required. Besides this, environmental concerns would create further barriers that delay the accomplishment of the project. Therefore, the effective and quickest solution to tackle this problem is enhancing the power transfer capability and stability margin of existing transmission lines. This paper studied the techno-economic feasibility of converting an existing HVAC line into a simultaneous AC-DC power transmission system to enhance power transfer capability as well as to improve power system stability. Using the proposed method, the loadability of Tana Beles to Addis Ababa 400 kV, 476.2 km AC line has increased to more than double which is from 1091.66 MW to 2196.85 MW. The active power loss and corona loss evaluation of the two systems ensured that simultaneous AC-DC system is more efficient than HVAC system. It is also shown that the instability can be effectively improved by simultaneous AC-DC power transmission with fast DC power modulation. From the economic point of view, rather than constructing new HVAC line, converting existing HVAC line into simultaneous AC-DC transmission system has a price reduction of about 107,984,968.56 USD or 32.46% of the new HVAC line cost. Considering a 35-year project life cost analysis, it is observed that the life cycle cost of the simultaneous AC-DC transmission system is about 29.2% lower than the life cycle cost of a new 400 kV HVAC line. Thus, the designed simultaneous AC-DC power transmission system has better technical performance and also is less costly than constructing a new HVAC line.

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Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning

Cited by 33 publications

References 51 publications

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Hydropower-Dominated Power System—The Case of Ethiopia

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Hydropower-Dominated Power System—The Case of Ethiopia

Strategic low-cost energy investment opportunities and challenges towards achieving universal access (SDG7) in each African nation

Techno-Economic Comparisons of HVAC and Simultaneous AC-DC Transmission

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