Influence of large‐scale climate modes on daily synoptic weather types over New Zealand

Jiang, Ningbo; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Lorrey, Andrew

doi:10.1002/joc.3443

Cited by 68 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Subsequently, the role of the remote climate driver as a regulator of unique circulation patterns can be established and linked to remote paleoclimate proxy variability, ideally with guidance from dynamical climate models so that the interactions are well grounded in physics. Such processbased studies are particularly advantageous for situations where multiple climate drivers interact to generate spatially distinct climate patterns (Jiang et al 2012). The common variations associated with both ENSO-based and SAM-based nonstationary relationships with local climates in section 5a indicate this might be particularly important for the Australasian region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions

Gallant¹,

Phipps²,

Karoly³

et al. 2013

Journal of Climate

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The stationarity of relationships between local and remote climates is a necessary, yet implicit, assumption underlying many paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the assumption is tenuous for many seasonal relationships between interannual variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM) and Australasian precipitation and mean temperatures. Nonstationary statistical relationships between local and remote climates on the 31-71-yr time scale, defined as a change in their strength and/or phase outside that expected from local climate noise, are detected on near-centennial time scales from instrumental data, climate model simulations, and paleoclimate proxies.The relationships between ENSO and SAM and Australasian precipitation were nonstationary at 21%-37% of Australasian stations from 1900 to 2009 and strongly covaried, suggesting common modulation. Control simulations from three coupled climate models produce ENSO-like and SAM-like patterns of variability, but differ in detail to the observed patterns in Australasia. However, the model teleconnections also display nonstationarity, in some cases for over 50% of the domain. Therefore, nonstationary local-remote climatic relationships are inherent in environments regulated by internal variability. The assessments using paleoclimate reconstructions are not robust because of extraneous noise associated with the paleoclimate proxies.Instrumental records provide the only means of calibrating and evaluating regional paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the length of Australasian instrumental observations may be too short to capture the near-centennialscale variations in local-remote climatic relationships, potentially compromising these reconstructions. The uncertainty surrounding nonstationary teleconnections must be acknowledged and quantified. This should include interpreting nonstationarities in paleoclimate reconstructions using physically based frameworks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions

Gallant¹,

Phipps²,

Karoly³

et al. 2013

Journal of Climate

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“…In that situation, local climates are assumed to respond consistently through time to synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. In the absence of other main forcing mechanisms like volcanism, solar variability, greenhouse gases, and insolation changes, atmospheric regime frequency shifts are implicated for causing local anomalies Jiang et al, 2013;Lorrey et al, 2007Lorrey et al, , 2008Lorrey et al, , 2014Lorrey et al, 2010). Past climate interpretations using this approach remain heavily reliant on modern observations, palaeoclimate reconstructions that have been calibrated to local climate data, sufficient palaeodata network density, and understanding how other forcing mechanisms operated and impacted local climates in the past.…”

Section: Climate Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records in the Australasian region were compiled to facilitate investigations of decadal to centennial climate variability over the past 2000 years. A total of 675 lake and wetland, geomorphic, marine, and speleothem records were identified. The majority of records are located near population centres in southeast Australia, in New Zealand, and across the maritime continent, and there are few records from the arid regions of central and western Australia. Each record was assessed against a set of a priori criteria based on temporal resolution, record length, dating methods, and confidence in the proxy-climate relationship over the Common Era. A subset of 22 records met the criteria and were endorsed for subsequent analyses. Chronological uncertainty was the primary reason why records did not meet the selection criteria. New chronologies based on Bayesian techniques were constructed for the high-quality subset to ensure a consistent approach to age modelling and quantification of age uncertainties. The primary reasons for differences between published and reconstructed age-depth models were the consideration of the non-singular distribution of ages in calibrated 14 C dates and the use of estimated autocorrelation between sampled depths as a constraint for changes in accumulation rate. Existing proxies and reconstruction techniques that successfully capture climate variability in the region show potential to address spatial gaps and expand the range of climate variables covering the last 2000 years in the Australasian region. Future palaeoclimate research and records in Australasia could be greatly improved through three main actions: (i) greater data availability through the public archiving of published records; (ii) thorough characterisation of proxy-climate relationships through site monitoring and climate sensitivity tests; and (iii) improvement of chronologies through coretop dating, inclusion of tephra layers where possible, and increased date density during the Common Era.

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“…Subtropical easterly airflow is enhanced by anticyclonic circulation associated with blocking high pressure over the southern Tasman Sea and New Zealand; a synoptic situation that is more (less) frequent during SAM positive (negative) (Jiang et al 2012).…”

Section: A Etlmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SAM positive is associated with a strengthened ridge in the Tasman Sea (Cai et al 2011a;Jiang et al 2012) and a well-developed split jet (Gallego et al 2005;Bals-Elsholz et al 2001); both conducive to ETL genesis. SAM positive is associated with a strengthened ridge in the Tasman Sea (Cai et al 2011a;Jiang et al 2012) and a well-developed split jet (Gallego et al 2005;Bals-Elsholz et al 2001); both conducive to ETL genesis.…”

Section: Summary Of the Relationship Between Major Climate Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-Scale Influences on the Evolution of Winter Subtropical Maritime Cyclones Affecting Australia’s East Coast

Browning

Goodwin

2013

Monthly Weather Review

120

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Subtropical maritime low pressure systems frequently impact Australia's eastern seaboard. Closed circulation lows in the Tasman Sea region are termed East Coast Cyclones (ECC); they can evolve in a range of climatic environments and have proven most destructive during the late autumn-winter period. Using criteria based on pressure gradients, inferred wind field, and duration, an objectively determined database of ECC occurrences is established to explore large-scale influences on ECC evolution. Subclassification based on evolutionary trajectory reveals two dominant storm types during late autumn-winter: easterly trough lows (ETL) and southern secondary lows (SSL). Synoptic composites are used to investigate the climatological evolution of each storm type. ETL cyclogenesis occurs along the eastern seaboard at the confluence of warm moist subtropical easterlies and cool air over the continent that is advected from higher latitudes. SSL develop when a cold extratropical cyclone moves equatorward and interacts with warm moist conditions in the Tasman Sea. At seasonal time scales, a complex interplay of tropical and extratropical influences contributes to high-frequency storm seasons. ETL are more frequent during neutral or positive phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, cool sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Indian Ocean, and neutral to positive southern annular mode phases. SSL are more frequent during years with warm SSTAs in the eastern Indian Ocean, warm SSTAs in the western Pacific, and high-latitude blocking.

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Influence of large‐scale climate modes on daily synoptic weather types over New Zealand

Cited by 68 publications

References 47 publications

Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions

Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions

Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years

Large-Scale Influences on the Evolution of Winter Subtropical Maritime Cyclones Affecting Australia’s East Coast

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