Influence of solar activity changes on European rainfall

Laurenz, Ludger; Lüdecke, Horst-Joachim; Lüning, Sebastian

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2019.01.012

Cited by 46 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…The observed linkage between MR extreme weather records to the SSC is similar to the ndings of Laurenz et al (2019), where the SSC was found to correlate with European rainfall totals. However, in that study it was observed that there was a moderate month to month correlation between variation in the strength of solar in uence on extreme precipitation, which in contrast to the results for the MR, were signi cantly reduced at the seasonal level.…”

Section: Linear Trends In Extreme Weather Eventssupporting

confidence: 80%

“…However, in that study it was observed that there was a moderate month to month correlation between variation in the strength of solar in uence on extreme precipitation, which in contrast to the results for the MR, were signi cantly reduced at the seasonal level. The wider geographic coverage, accompanied by a wider regional climatic variability, used by Laurenz et al (2019) may explain the greater month to month variation between the two studies.…”

Section: Linear Trends In Extreme Weather Eventsmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Periodicity in Extreme Weather in the ‘Maritime Region’ of Eastern North America

2021

Preprint

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Spectral and wavelet analysis were used to identify trends and cycles in extreme temperature and precipitation events based on historical data (~100-150 years) from six climate stations within the “Maritime Region” of eastern North America. Many statistically significant climate cycles were identified using both spectral and Morlet wavelet analyses at each of these locations for both extreme high and low temperature and precipitation (rain, snow) data, with periodicities typically ranging from ~ 2–30 years. To assess potential drivers of these cyclical extreme weather events, the records of these events were compared, using cross wavelet analysis, to the climate indices of several teleconnections, including the 11-year Schwabe solar cycle, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation. It was found that the 11-year solar cycle had the strongest influence over extreme temperature and precipitation in this region, whereas the remaining oscillations, with the exception the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation, exhibited complex interactions with one another, characterized a variety of both positive and negative modulating effects. The Quasi–Biennial Oscillation was found to drive high–frequency oscillations in extreme weather, particularly extreme precipitation. Overall, the findings of this study indicate that extreme weather events in this region have not substantially increased or decreased in number over time, but have been predominantly influenced by several cyclic climate phenomena.

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Section: Linear Trends In Extreme Weather Eventssupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Linear Trends In Extreme Weather Eventsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Periodicity in Extreme Weather in the ‘Maritime Region’ of Eastern North America

2021

Preprint

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“…However, the methods we used are just a standard, using simple statistics. In the future, we will investigate the fractal characteristics of daily precipitation and drought extremes and identify their attributions based on the power law model [14,50].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The number of studies on climate extremes all over the world has risen sharply in recent years. Most of these studies are mainly focused on the trends of extremes, their attributes, and socioeconomic impacts, both globally and regionally, observed and projected [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. There was a general perception that climate extremes have occurred more frequently in recent decades based on natural hazard records, as compiled by the insurance sector [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Precipitation and Drought Extremes over the Past Half Century in China

Liu

Shen

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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Changes in climate extremes have become a hot issue in the research field of climate change recently. Many studies have reported that climate extremes have occurred more frequently and with increasing intensity in recent decades. In this study, thresholds of precipitation and drought extremes were determined by the cumulative distribution function, and their spatiotemporal changes over the past half-century in China were analyzed by relative change rate. The results show that: (1) precipitation extremes increased in all regions except North China, while increasing trends of drought extremes were detected in all regions except Northwest China and the Qing–Tibet Plateau; (2) the maximum change rates in frequency of precipitation extremes were found in Northwest China and the Qing–Tibet Plateau, with values of 16.13% and 8.12%, and the maximum change rates in frequency of drought extremes were in Southwest and Southeast China, whose increases in intensity of drought extremes were also the maximum; (3) variation in precipitation extremes showed a relatively mixed pattern with higher heterogeneity compared to that of drought extremes; and (4) changes in precipitation and drought extremes relate to mid-intensity, lower-intensity, and annual precipitation.

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“…Various authors have also reported significant correlations between solar activity and precipitation. A recent example is Laurenz et al (2019), demonstrating significant correlations between precipitation and solar activity for many months of the year over much of Europe 1901-2015.…”

Section: Appendix 1: a Brief Overview Of Solar Variability And Solar-mentioning

confidence: 99%

The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices

et al. 2021

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Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe (c. 1500–1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of $$-\,0.41$$ - 0.41 considering the European grain price average and previous year June–August temperatures at annual resolution, and of $$-\,0.63$$ - 0.63 at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged.

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Influence of solar activity changes on European rainfall

Cited by 46 publications

References 88 publications

Periodicity in Extreme Weather in the ‘Maritime Region’ of Eastern North America

Periodicity in Extreme Weather in the ‘Maritime Region’ of Eastern North America

Changes in Precipitation and Drought Extremes over the Past Half Century in China

The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices

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