Influence of solar UV irradiance on the quasi-biennial oscillation of zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere

Gabis, I.P.; Трошичев, О. А.

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2006.05.017

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Not surprisingly, we see that the mean QBO period is constant with height [as also shown in Fig. 2c of Gabis and Troshichev (2006)]. Individual QBO periods are slightly more variable but can be regarded as almost constant, within 61 month between 1 and 40 hPa, consistent with Fischer and Tung (2008), although we have found 2-month deviations in the lower stratosphere in some cases.…”

Section: Qbo-sao Synchronization: Data Analysissupporting

confidence: 71%

Nonstationary Synchronization of Equatorial QBO with SAO in Observations and a Model

Kuai

Shia

Jiang

et al. 2009

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

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It has often been suggested that the period of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has a tendency to synchronize with the semiannual oscillation (SAO). Apparently the synchronization is better the higher up the observation extends. Using 45 yr of the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data of the equatorial stratosphere up to the stratopause, the authors confirm that this synchronization is not just a tendency but a robust phenomenon in the upper stratosphere. A QBO period starts when a westerly SAO (w-SAO) descends from the stratopause to 7 hPa and initiates the westerly phase of the QBO (w-QBO) below. It ends when another w-SAO, a few SAO periods later, descends again to 7 hPa to initiate the next w-QBO. The fact that it is the westerly but not the easterly SAO (e-SAO) that initiates the QBO is also explained by the general easterly bias of the angular momentum in the equatorial stratosphere so that the e-SAO does not create a zero-wind line, unlike the w-SAO. The currently observed average QBO period of 28 months, which is not an integer multiple of SAO periods, is a result of intermittent jumps of the QBO period from four SAO to five SAO periods. The same behavior is also found in the Two and a Half Dimensional Interactive Isentropic Research (THINAIR) model. It is found that the nonstationary behavior in both the observation and model is caused not by the 11-yr solar-cycle forcing but by the incompatibility of the QBO's natural period (determined by its wave forcing) and the ''quantized'' period determined by the SAO. The wave forcing parameter for the QBO period in the current climate probably lies between four SAO and five SAO periods. If the wave forcing for the QBO is tuned so that its natural period is compatible with the SAO period above (e.g., at 24 or 30 months), nonstationary behavior disappears.

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Section: Qbo-sao Synchronization: Data Analysissupporting

confidence: 71%

Nonstationary Synchronization of Equatorial QBO with SAO in Observations and a Model

Kuai

Shia

Jiang

et al. 2009

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

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“…[6] Gabis and Troshichev [2006] pointed out that their data analysis is not consistent with the implicit assumption of Soukharev and Hood [2001] and Salby and Callaghan [2000] that there are more stalling of the easterlies and the prolongation of the westerlies in years of solar minimum since almost half of all short QBO durations occur near solar minima (1962, 1974, 1996 and 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle

Fischer

Tung

2008

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] Using the updated Singapore wind from 1953 to 2007 for the lower stratosphere 70-10 hPa, courtesy of Barbara Naujokat of Free University of Berlin, we examine the variation of the period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) as a function of height and its modulation in time by the 11-year solar cycle. The analysis is supplemented by the ERA-40 reanalysis up to 1 hPa. Previously, it was reported that the descent of the easterly shear zone tends to stall near 30 hPa during solar minimum, leading to a lengthened QBO westerly duration near 44-50 hPa and the reported anticorrelation of the westerly duration and the solar cycle. Using an objective method, continuous wavelet transform (CWT), for the determination of local QBO period, we find that the whole QBO period is almost invariant with respect to height, so that the stalling mechanism affects only the partition of the whole period between easterly and westerly durations. Using this longest data set available for equatorial stratospheric wind, which spans five and half solar cycles (six solar minima), we find that in three solar minima, the QBO period is lengthened, while in the remaining almost three solar cycles, the QBO period is lengthened instead at solar maxima. We suggest that the decadal variation of the QBO period originates in the upper stratosphere, where the solar-ozone radiative influence is strong. The solar modulation of the QBO period is found to be nonstationary; the averaged effect cannot be determined unless the data record is much longer. In shorter records, the correlation can change sign, as we have found in segments of the longest record available, with or without lag.

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“…Consequently, the prediction of the next QBO-cycle beginning has become possible. It would have come after a lapse of 2 years after the current cycle onset in the corresponding solstice, that is in January 2007 (Gabis and Troshichev, 2006). Fig.…”

Section: -Month Qbo Cycle From January 2005 To December 2006mentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The method of long-tern prediction has been elaborated and verified for the QBO-cycles proceeded in the period from July 2002 to June 2011 (Gabis, 2012;Gabis and Troshichev, 2005a;2006;2011). Fig.…”

Section: The Previous Forecasts and Its Verificationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, in the majority of cases the easterly stopping lasts only 3-4 months, and this short halts are not so obvious in the time-height sections as long delays that occur only sometimes and continue near 40-50 hPa from July to February. Also it was shown that the start and the end of all easterly wind regime delays (the stages of stagnation) are strongly coupled to seasons: the stagnation is always observed between the solstice and the following first, second or third equinox (Gabis, 2012;Gabis and Troshichev, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2006, 2011. The resulting discretely changing length of the stagnation stages causes the clearly defined quantized QBOperiod (24,30 or 36 months), that allows the long-term prediction of the QBO-cycle evolution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The validity of long-term prediction of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as a proof of the exact seasonal synchronization of the equatorial stratospheric QBO cycle

Gabis

2015

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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Influence of solar UV irradiance on the quasi-biennial oscillation of zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere

Cited by 11 publications

References 41 publications

Nonstationary Synchronization of Equatorial QBO with SAO in Observations and a Model

Nonstationary Synchronization of Equatorial QBO with SAO in Observations and a Model

A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle

The validity of long-term prediction of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as a proof of the exact seasonal synchronization of the equatorial stratospheric QBO cycle

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