The validity of long-term prediction of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as a proof of the exact seasonal synchronization of the equatorial stratospheric QBO cycle

Gabis, I.P.

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2015.01.015

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…In this article we have demonstrated the possibility of exact synchronization of the QBO by the annual cycle, albeit in a highly idealised model. Exact synchronisation between the QBO and the annual cycle has not generally been reported in the real stratosphere (Dunkerton, 1990), although a recent article has presented observational evidence arguing in favour of this (Gabis, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Synchronisation of the equatorial QBO by the annual cycle in tropical upwelling in a warming climate

Rajendran

Moroz

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et al. 2016

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The response of the period of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to increases in tropical upwelling are considered using a one-dimensional model. We find that the imposition of the annual cycle in tropical upwelling creates substantial variability in the period of the QBO. The annual cycle creates synchronisation regions in the wave forcing space, within which the QBO period locks onto an integer multiple of the annual forcing period. Outside of these regions, the QBO period undergoes discrete jumps as it attempts to find a stable relationship with the oscillator forcing. The resulting set of QBO periods can be either discrete or broad-banded, depending on the intrinsic period of the QBO.We use the same model to study the evolution of the QBO period as the strength of tropical upwelling increases, as would be expected in a warmer climate. The QBO period lengthens and migrates closer towards 36-and 48-month locking regions as upwelling increases. The QBO period does not vary continuously with increased upwelling, however, but instead transitions through a series of two-and three-cycles before becoming locked to the annual cycle. Finally, some observational evidence for the cyclical behaviour of the QBO periods in the real atmosphere is presented.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Synchronisation of the equatorial QBO by the annual cycle in tropical upwelling in a warming climate

Rajendran

Moroz

Read

et al. 2016

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…Note that it is commonly believed that the QBO period varies irregularly in the range from 17 to 38 months, with the mean value being about 28-30 months. However, the discretely varying period of the QBO cycle, resulting from the seasonal regularities of the E-regime descent, allows long-term QBO prediction [59][60][61]. The duration of the forecasting depends on the scenario of the QBO.…”

Section: The Seasonal Features and Prediction Of The Qbomentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of cosmic weather on the Earth’s atmosphere

Трошичев¹,

Gabis²,

Криволуцкий³

2021

Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki

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The review generalizes experimental data on the relationships between the solar activity agents (space weather) and atmosphere constituents. It is shown that high-energy solar protons (SPE) make a powerful impact on photo-chemical processes in the polar areas and, correspondingly, on atmospheric circulation and planetary cloudiness. Variations of the solar UV irradiance modulate the descent rate of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere in the course of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and thus control the total duration (period) of the QBO cycle and, correspondingly, the seasonal ozone depletion in the Antarctic. The geo-effective solar wind impacts on the atmospheric wind system in the entire Southern Polar region, and influences the dynamics of the Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Wang,

Rao,

et al. 2025

Atmospheric Oscillations

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The validity of long-term prediction of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as a proof of the exact seasonal synchronization of the equatorial stratospheric QBO cycle

Cited by 9 publications

References 32 publications

Synchronisation of the equatorial QBO by the annual cycle in tropical upwelling in a warming climate

Synchronisation of the equatorial QBO by the annual cycle in tropical upwelling in a warming climate

Influence of cosmic weather on the Earth’s atmosphere

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

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