Influenza in Maryland: Preliminary Statistics of Certain Localities

Frost, W. H.; Sydenstricker, Edgar

doi:10.2307/4575056

Cited by 40 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Not only the entire USA, but also an epidemic record of Baltimore alone, was obtained [18]. For the second part of analysis, individual medical records of a Swiss TB sanatorium that experienced an influenza outbreak during the 1918-19 pandemic were extracted from the original report of the outbreak [20].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship between Tuberculosis and Influenza Death during the Influenza (H1N1) Pandemic from 1918-19

Oei

Nishiura

2012

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The epidemiological mechanisms behind the W-shaped age-specific influenza mortality during the Spanish influenza (H1N1) pandemic 1918-19 have yet to be fully clarified. The present study aimed to develop a formal hypothesis: tuberculosis (TB) was associated with the W-shaped influenza mortality from 1918-19. Three pieces of epidemiological information were assessed: (i) the epidemic records containing the age-specific numbers of cases and deaths of influenza from 1918-19, (ii) an outbreak record of influenza in a Swiss TB sanatorium during the pandemic, and (iii) the age-dependent TB mortality over time in the early 20th century. Analyzing the data (i), we found that the W-shaped pattern was not only seen in mortality but also in the age-specific case fatality ratio, suggesting the presence of underlying age-specific risk factor(s) of influenza death among young adults. From the data (ii), TB was shown to be associated with influenza death (P = 0.09), and there was no influenza death among non-TB controls. The data (iii) were analyzed by employing the age-period-cohort model, revealing harvesting effect in the period function of TB mortality shortly after the 1918-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that it is worthwhile to further explore the role of TB in characterizing the age-specific risk of influenza death.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship between Tuberculosis and Influenza Death during the Influenza (H1N1) Pandemic from 1918-19

Oei

Nishiura

2012

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Our results demonstrate that influenza is consistently only moderately transmissible and thus potentially controllable. They also demonstrate the value of simple large-scale household surveys, such as Frost and Sydenstricker's 1918 study (19), for disaggregating different clinically and epidemiologically relevant components of influenza transmission during the first months of a pandemic.…”

mentioning

confidence: 88%

“…To complement our analysis of transmission within households, a time-series analysis was used to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers from the incidence of disease reported in the Frost and Sydenstricker study (19). The reproduction number is defined as the number of individuals (or households) infected, on average, by each infected individual (or household) over his or her (its) entire infectious period.…”

Section: Time-series Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A key measure of transmissibility in households is the SITP, the probability that each infectious individual will infect each susceptible individual in a household during his or her infectious period. We begin by focusing on previously unpublished documents from the Wade Hampton Frost collection of the Chesney Medical Archives at Johns Hopkins University, which report the final outbreak size for households surveyed in a canvass conducted by Frost and Sydenstricker's team (19) from November 20, 1918, to December 15, 1918 While the time series of cases has been analyzed (5,10), detailed records collected during this study have not been previously published. The newly rediscovered data from Baltimore are summarized in Figure 1, parts A and B.…”

Section: The Frost and Sydenstricker Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the current study, we gained new insight into the transmission of pandemic influenza from previously unpublished data from a survey of 7,287 Maryland households conducted in the fall of 1918. The survey was led by Wade Hampton Frost, a pioneer of both field and theoretical epidemiology (17,18), who led the US Public Health Service's investigation into the 1918 pandemic (17,19) and developed one of the first mathematical models of infectious disease transmission (18). We extended Frost's posthumously published mathematical model of disease transmission in households (18) and fitted a wide range of model variants to the data from 1918.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Influenza Transmission in Households During the 1918 Pandemic

Fraser¹,

Cummings²,

Klinkenberg³

et al. 2011

American Journal of Epidemiology

106

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Analysis of historical data has strongly shaped our understanding of the epidemiology of pandemic influenza and informs analysis of current and future epidemics. Here, the authors analyzed previously unpublished documents from a large household survey of the "Spanish" H1N1 influenza pandemic, conducted in 1918, for the first time quantifying influenza transmissibility at the person-to-person level during that most lethal of pandemics. The authors estimated a low probability of person-to-person transmission relative to comparable estimates from seasonal influenza and other directly transmitted infections but similar to recent estimates from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The authors estimated a very low probability of asymptomatic infection, a previously unknown parameter for this pandemic, consistent with an unusually virulent virus. The authors estimated a high frequency of prior immunity that they attributed to a largely unreported influenza epidemic in the spring of 1918 (or perhaps to cross-reactive immunity). Extrapolating from this finding, the authors hypothesize that prior immunity partially protected some populations from the worst of the fall pandemic and helps explain differences in attack rates between populations. Together, these analyses demonstrate that the 1918 influenza virus, though highly virulent, was only moderately transmissible and thus in a modern context would be considered controllable.

show abstract

The Epidemiology of Influenza

Frost¹

1919

JAMA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

in a splendid spirit. After our volunteer had had this sort of contact with the patient, talking and chatting and shaking hands with him for five minutes, and receiving his breath five times, and then his cough five times directly in his face, he moved to the next patient whom we had selected, and repeated this, and so on, until this volunteer had had that sort of contact with ten different cases of influenza, in differ¬ ent stages of the disease, mostly fresh cases, none of them more than three days old.We will remember that each one of the ten volunteers had that sort of intimate contact with each one of the ten different influenza patients. They were watched carefully for seven days-and none of them took sick in any way.

show abstract

Influenza in Maryland: Preliminary Statistics of Certain Localities

Cited by 40 publications

References 0 publications

The Relationship between Tuberculosis and Influenza Death during the Influenza (H1N1) Pandemic from 1918-19

The Relationship between Tuberculosis and Influenza Death during the Influenza (H1N1) Pandemic from 1918-19

Influenza Transmission in Households During the 1918 Pandemic

The Epidemiology of Influenza

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About