Informing Program Management Decisions Using Quantitative Set-Based Design

Self Cite

Engineering complex systems is an exercise in sequential multiobjective decision making under uncertainty. One method for handling this complexity and uncertainty is set-based design (SBD). SBD is a concurrent engineering and management methodology that develops, analyzes, and matures numerous design options, reducing risk and delivering higher value to the stakeholders and end users. SBD accomplishes this through controlled design space convergence which reduces uncertainty and prevents premature design decisions. While SBD has been the subject of numerous scholarly articles, there is limited research providing quantitative methodologies that inform decisions enabling design maturation and convergence. We present a value of information (VOI) based methodology for multiobjective decision problems, and demonstrate its applicability for SBD decisions. We apply Bayesian decision models and information value to inform multiobjective modeling and design maturation decisions. Research contributions include: 1) a framework integrating VOI into the SBD process, 2) a multiobjective VOI method assessing a higher-resolution model's ability to reduce uncertainty, and 3) a means of informing modeling decisions by comparing multiple high resolutions models, given their usage cost and their potential to deliver information value.Finally, we demonstrate the inherent issues associated with premature decisions and traditional point-based design approaches which run the risk of selecting an alternative that later proves infeasible.

Section: A Sbd System Design Decision Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

“…A reassessment of the available design decisions based on feasibility, performance, and cost prioritizes design sets for continued maturation. These updated design decisions feed back into F I G U R E 2 SBD initial trade-off analysis of SBD alternatives adapted from Shallcross et al6…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A value of information methodology for multiobjective decisions in quantitative set‐based design

Shallcross

Parnell

Pohl

et al. 2021

Self Cite

“…Equally important are design maturation decisions, which govern the physical system's design, with the objective of developing alternatives that maximize value and minimize program risk. 1 Both types of decisions are multiobjective in nature, and require coordination throughout the design process. Unfortunately, there exist no methodologies within literature describing how to coordinate these decisions in the quantitative SBD process, or describe the potential benefits of such coordination in regards to design convergence.…”

Section: Research Description Primary Research Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To address this shortfall, we use the PMV model to assess sources of design performance, cost, and schedule uncertainty to inform decisions guiding design maturation. 1 The methodology considers a set's residual level of design feasibility uncertainty, which we measure using design feasibility entropy, a type of information entropy. 19 This enables tradeoff analysis of a set's PMV and design set feasibility entropy (H) to inform a design maturation decision for a given set.…”

Section: Uses a Model Improvement Potential Metric Based On Hurwicz Criterionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We specifically concentrate on decisions and processes enabling design convergence in quantitative set-based design (SBD) applications. 1 These decisions are multiobjective in nature and are subject to both reducible epistemic and irreducible aleatory uncertainty regarding design performance and feasibility. Decision quality and timing are critical in resolving uncertainty and engineering resilient and affordable designs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using value of information in quantitative set‐based design

Shallcross

Parnell

Pohl

et al. 2021

Self Cite

Increasing system complexity requires that engineers, systems analysts, and program managers use comprehensive design methodologies to deliver affordable and resilient designs. One method is set-based design (SBD), a product development and managerial process distinctly suited for developing complex systems under uncertainty. SBD simultaneously develops, analyzes, and matures numerous potential design sets, enabling the identification of high-value, affordable, and resilient designs. Published SBD research is a rich source of both qualitative and quantitative methods. This research specifically focuses on quantitative SBD methods to apply a value of information (VOI) methodology enabling design convergence and selection. We build upon previous SBD research to enable design maturation and uncertainty reduction. Our methodology integrates design maturation and multiobjective VOI analysis into a comprehensive quantitative SBD process to guide system development from initial design concepts to the pre-production design decision. In doing so, we also provide refinements and process improvements to existing quantitative SBD methods. We demonstrate our methodology with a model-based UAV design case study using an integrated suite of system, value, and cost models. Our case study specifically focuses on the design maturation and model selection decisions enabling design space convergence.We compare our current results with those from a previous UAV case study, achieving a 41% reduction in required computation time for design space convergence. These results highlight the methodology's ability to reduce program risk and potential to improve SBD convergence efficiency.

Application of set‐based concurrent engineering methodology to the development of cost modeling system for metal casting process

Sajid

Wasim

Hussain

et al. 2022

In recent years, the reliable, accurate, and timely estimate of product cost at the conceptual design stage can enhance the competitiveness of a casting part. Set‐based concurrent engineering has emerged as an efficient solution to overcome this limitation as it provides simultaneous design procedures to positively assist the designer in achieving the required customer values in a short time and low cost. Therefore, this study attempts to integrate the set‐based concurrent engineering methodology into the development of a cost modeling system for the metal casting process. The system architecture is comprised of a user interface, knowledge database, and CAD modeling system. A detailed working flow process of the developed cost modeling system has been proposed under the guidelines of set‐based concurrent engineering. Further, the proposed methodology is demonstrated and validated by employing a real‐time casting part that was manufactured using the sand casting process. The implementation of the system provided many tangible benefits to the collaborative company including a decrease in cost estimation time (∼50%) and part rejection rate (∼32.3%). Further, the developed cost modeling approach provided a cost estimate near the actual cost of the product (∼4% deviation). It truly proves the significance of the developed system for the practitioners who believe that accurate and timely estimates of product manufacturing cost at the design stage can enhance the competitiveness of a product.