Ingredient-based Forecast of Sold Dish Portions in Campus Canteen Kitchens

Demand Forecasting of Bento Considering the Product Popularity Estimation by Bayesian Rating System

“…Kano et al [12] and Woltmann et al [13] presented demand forecasting models that consider the popularity of products. Kano et al [12] quantified product popularity by introducing a product popularity influence term in their predictive model.…”

“…They constructed a model to predict the sales volume of a bento using a state-space model that accounts for product popularity and temperature. Woltmann et al [13] used natural language processing to quantify the influence (popularity) of words in product descriptions. They proposed a model for predicting the sales volume of a school cafeteria using gradient boosting, which considers product popularity and calendar effects.…”

“…To accurately forecast demand, it is necessary to consider the influence of bento menu products sold simultaneously. When quantifying the product popularity of bento menus in bento delivery services, it is difficult to apply the method proposed by Woltmann et al [13]. They built a model that uses natural language processing to quantify word strength in product descriptions.…”

“…where ߳ ௗ ା , ‫ݏ‬ ௗ ା , ߳ ௗ ି ,and ‫ݏ‬ ௗ ି were calculated from the Equations ( 11), ( 12), (13), and (14), respectively.…”

“…However, few studies have conducted demand forecasting to account for product popularity. These studies proposed methods to consider the popularity of products in a predictive model by introducing the product popularity influence term [12] and using natural language processing techniques [13]. However, the method of introducing a product popularity influence term does not consider the influence of bento menu products sold simultaneously.…”