Innovation on the web: the end of the S-curve?

Abstract

Rigorous research into the historical past of Web technologydriven innovation becomes timely as technological growth and forecasting are attracting popular interest. Drawing on economic and management literature relating to the typical trends of technological innovation, we examine the long-term development of Web technology in a theoretically informed and empirical manner. An original longitudinal dataset of 20,493 Web-related US patents is used to trace the growth curve of Web technology between the years of 1990 through 2013. We find that the accumulation of corporate Web inventions followed an S-shaped curve which shifted to linear growth after year 2004. This transition is unusual in relation to the traditional S-curve model of technological development that typically approaches a limit. The point of inflection on the S-curve coincided reasonably closely with the timing of the dot-com crash in year 2000. Moreover, we find a complex bi-directional relationship between patenting rates in Web technology and movements in the NASDAQ composite stock index. The implications of these results are discussed in theoretical and practical terms for sustained technological growth. Specific recommendations for different stakeholders in commercial Web development are included. ARTICLE HISTORY

The technology life cycle of Persian lime. A patent based analysis

“…The application of the technology life cycle research is anchored in the field of innovation strategy, however its origins may also be traced back to the domains of technology management and measurement [ 21 ]. Technological growth is defined in the sphere of innovation as the accumulation of new ideas or methods generated by firms and driven by industry to create economic value [ 15 ]. This innovation growth is a representation of technological change over time and follows a technological path [ 56 ] that enables better investment and strategic management decisions [ 57 ].…”

“…Finally, some interest can be found in research based on ICT technologies; for example, Priestley et al. [ 15 ] investigated Web technologies to forecast technology based on patenting rates and S-curve growth. Gladysz et al.…”

“…It is common in the literature to find research with complementary methods to the technology life cycle that improves the prediction or analysis of the technology or sector. Thus, some research aims to link not only the innovation approach or the technology diffusion, but the market size [ 66 ] or stock market behaviour over time [ 15 ] using patents on one side and variables such as unit of cost per installed capacity or the NASDAQ composite stock index on the other. Also, research uses complementary management tools to the S-curve such as technology roadmaps and technology audits [ 80 ], and specific methods like machine learning [ 85 ], the use of entropy [ 77 ], the Dirichlet allocation topic model [ 81 ], the use of time series modelling using statistical quality control charts [ 79 ], or hierarchical S-curves to analyse main technologies (e.g.…”

“…However, before developing a strategy, predicting technological patterns might assist in understanding the future direction and existing state of technological development [ 13 , 14 ]. According to technology management and innovation theory, the technological accumulation is defined as the growth and evolution of new ideas or methods generated by firms and driven by industry to create value [ 15 ]. Technology forecasting is a method that employs growth patterns and technology maturity curves to aid in the analysis of the technology innovation process and the industry characteristics [ 16 ] to anticipate and comprehend the potential direction, rate, characteristics, and effects of technological change [ 17 ].…”

Anticipatory innovation governance

“…Source: Tushman and Anderson, 1986;Foster 1986;Utterback, 1994;Tellis, 2006;Perez et al, 2010;Priestley, Sluckin and Tiropanis, 2020.…”