Innovations in government management of the healthcare system: forecasting of covid-19 consequences in social, investment and business development

Abstract

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of the need for an innovative policy in the area of health protection at the link with the transformation of the social and economic development of the country through the pandemic COVID-19. The main goal of this study is to predict two scenarios for the development of the main indicators of the country's socio-economic development: considering the pandemic COVID-19 and the possible course of events without the influence of epidemiological threats. The systematization of literary sources and approaches to innovation and the determination of the volume of negative consequences for the national economy, due to the introduction of quarantine restrictions, has shown that this issue is quite relevant around the world. The study of the transformation of the trajectory of economic development of Ukraine in the article was carried out in the following logical sequence: 1) collection of statistical information, including 118 indicators of social development, the state of capital investment and business expectations of Ukrainian enterprises and screening of multicollinear indicators among them; 2) performing a time series decomposition separately for the interval 5 years before quarantine and taking into account the impact of the pandemic; 3) forecasting the consequences of the pandemic according to the investigated indicators of economic development in 2020-2022 by turning the time series into the Fourier series. The methodological tools of the study were methods of checking for multicollinearity by Pearson coefficients, decomposition of additive models into a trend and cyclic components, selection of cyclic oscillations by fast Fourier transform, extrapolation of constructed models for subsequent years, and quality control of constructed models by F-test quarterly data for 2015-2020 are selected. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that among the socio-economic development factors studied, most experienced significant transformations due to the introduction of quarantine restrictions by the government. This leads to the need for innovation policy in the health sector in order to minimize such consequences in the future. Keywords: Fourier series, forecasting, COVID-19, innovation, time series decomposition, health care.

An overview of the elemental and functional content of the health indicators system as an economic category

“…On the other hand, the findings showed that the COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by suicidal ideation due to social isolation and social restrictions, fear, unemployment, and financial factors (Hinrichs and Bundtzen, 2020;The Lancet, 2020;Vasylieva et al, 2020).…”

Economic development and income inequality: Role in country resistance to COVID-19

“…Modernization of the healthcare system's infrastructure positively affects public health and stimulates economic growth due to the improvement of the quality and productivity of the workforce. Lyeonov et al (2021a); Lyeonov et al (2021b); Vasylieva et al (2020); Ziabina, Kwilinski, Belik (2021) also highlighted channels of public health care system influence on the country's economic development. Finally, GDP growth stimulates investing in the development of the green economy, and the improvement of the environment allows for the allocation of investments in fixed assets and accelerates economic growth (Tomchuk et al (2018).…”

Health Risks and Country Sustainability: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic with Determining Cause-and-Effect Relationships and Their Transformations

“…Authors from different countries investigated the multidirectional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the social and economic development of territorial units. Many social issues have been raised due to the long-term effect of the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. An important topic was raised in one study [24] regarding the creation of gender-sensitive policies to counter the negative impact of the pandemic.…”