Insights into countries’ exposure and vulnerability to food trade shocks from network-based simulations

Grassia, Marco; Mangioni, Giuseppe; Schiavo, Stefano; Traverso, Silvio

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-08419-2

Cited by 18 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Trade globalization has shown an increase in food resilience and water security, whereas it also enhanced the likelihood of global crises due to growing dependence on major production hubs [ 74 , 83 , 84 ]. Overall, the topological quantification of Indian inland trade through a complex system’s lens could help to understand the trade network’s resilience and recovery by identifying the network’s important and vulnerable sections to external disruptions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracing spatiotemporal changes in agricultural and non-agricultural trade networks of India

Kulkarni,

Dave,

Bhatia

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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The evolving international economic instability and international trade relationship demand a nation to move towards a self-reliant integrated system at a sub-national scale to address the growing human needs. Given India’s role in the global trade network, it is critical to explore the underlying extensive complex trade network at the domestic scale. The potential advantages of complex interaction among the different commodities remain unexplored despite the known importance of trade networks in maintaining food security and industrial sustainability. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of agricultural flows in contrast with non-agricultural commodities across Indian states. The spatio-temporal evolution of the networks from 2010–2018 was studied by evaluating topological network characteristics of consistent spatially disaggregated trade data. Our results show an increase in average annual trade value by 23.3% and 15.4% for agriculture and non-agriculture commodities, respectively, with no significant increase in connectivity observed in both networks. However, they depict contrasting behavior concerning the spatio-temporal changes, with non-agriculture trade becoming more dependent on production hubs and the agriculture trade progressing toward self-reliance, which signifies the evolution of the diversification in the existing agrarian trade network. Our findings could serve as an important element in deepening the knowledge of practical applications like resilience and recovery by devising design appropriate policy interventions for sustainable development.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracing spatiotemporal changes in agricultural and non-agricultural trade networks of India

Kulkarni,

Dave,

Bhatia

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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“…A breakdown shows that 7% of the land area h high suitability for SSM (value: 21-25) and 17% as high suitability (value: 17-20), p located in the South and coastal regions. Meanwhile, the North Central region 33% area with moderate suitability surface soil moisture (value: [13][14][15][16]). The core N areas have 23% and 20% of their area classified as marginal (value: 8-12) and low ity (value: 3-8), respectively (see Figure 3).…”

Section: Environmental Suitability Potential Assessment For Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the above, to find a solution to food supply challenges, countries rely on food imports as a food security strategy to support local food production [15]. However, this option is also dependent on economic purchasing power, and this measure may not be sustainable due to various factors such as population growth [16] compared to advocating for self-sufficiency [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Assessment of Land Suitability Potential for Agriculture in Nigeria

Chiaka,

Zhen,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Foods

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From land cover analysis, cropland expansion was a major driving factor for land use land cover changes in Nigeria from 2000 to 2020. This further highlights the food production needs in the country. While this land use change indicates a significant alteration in land cover, it was exigent to assess land suitability using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) combined with geospatial techniques to identify areas with agricultural suitability potential and to analyze cropland suitability. The results showed that the country had 8% of very high suitability, high suitability (25%), moderate suitability (29%), and marginal suitability (25%) croplands. However, low suitability accounts for 14% of the entire cropland. The spatial distribution of cropland suitability shows that most areas in the South East, South South, and South West, respectively, have the most suitable cropland as they meet the biophysical conditions for crop production, followed by the North Central regions, while most places in the North (North East and North West) have a higher share of moderate to low suitability. This study highlights the potential of the country to target localized self-sufficiency. Therefore, this study recommends using the cropland suitability map to launch food security programs across the six geopolitical zones to maximize their inherent environmental potentials to alleviate the country’s food production needs.

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“…However, models of the relationships between population growth, food production, and trade dynamics have shown that over-dependence on food imports impairs global food security (Suweis et al, 2015). Low-income food-deficit regions, such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, are most vulnerable to price shocks in food trade and least able to protect themselves against domestic food production shocks (Grassia et al, 2022). Worse still, the UN International Labor Organization said in its 2021 report that people in these countries live with much lower rates of social welfare protection.…”

Section: Livelihood Struggle Among the Rural Poormentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversifying agrifood systems to ensure global food security following the Russia–Ukraine crisis

Neik

Siddique

Mayes

et al. 2023

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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The recent Russia–Ukraine conflict has raised significant concerns about global food security, leaving many countries with restricted access to imported staple food crops, particularly wheat and sunflower oil, sending food prices soaring with other adverse consequences in the food supply chain. This detrimental effect is particularly prominent for low-income countries relying on grain imports, with record-high food prices and inflation affecting their livelihoods. This review discusses the role of Russia and Ukraine in the global food system and the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security. It also highlights how diversifying four areas of agrifood systems—markets, production, crops, and technology can contribute to achieving food supply chain resilience for future food security and sustainability.

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Insights into countries’ exposure and vulnerability to food trade shocks from network-based simulations

Cited by 18 publications

References 40 publications

Tracing spatiotemporal changes in agricultural and non-agricultural trade networks of India

Tracing spatiotemporal changes in agricultural and non-agricultural trade networks of India

Spatial Assessment of Land Suitability Potential for Agriculture in Nigeria

Diversifying agrifood systems to ensure global food security following the Russia–Ukraine crisis

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