Institutions, governmental performance and the rise of political newcomers

Abstract

This article analyses the institutional and contextual factors that facilitate the election of political newcomers as heads of government in democratic regimes. Using data from 870 democratic elections between 1945 and 2015, it is found that political newcomers are more likely to be successful in presidential systems, in new democracies and when party systems are weakly institutionalised. The election of politically inexperienced candidates is also related to governmental performance. Political newcomers are more successful when the economic performance of the government is bad and when the government engages in high‐level corruption.

The gender politics of executive candidate selection and reselection

“…Political resources such as political experience, party officeholding and connections to political insiders are likely to increase individuals' chances of winning nomination (Borrelli 2002;Claveria & Verge 2015). Typically, both women and men presidents have a longstanding seniority in public or party office (Jalalzai 2004: 99-100; see also Carreras 2017;Jensen 2008;Reyes-Housholder & Thomas 2018). This should also apply to regional political institutions since they have been 'largely professionalized from the outset' (Borchert & Stolz 2011: 108).…”

“…As a result, works on top executive leaders have tended to focus on women, but the reason why the ways in which political careers may be gendered cannot be fully grasped. For its part, mainstream research on executives has concentrated on elected presidents and prime ministers rather than on actual candidates (Botella et al 2010;Carreras 2017;Siavelis & Morgenstern 2008;Samuels & Shugart 2010; but see Astudillo 2015) or it has focused on party leaders under the assumption that the latter tend to be the executive candidates (Sandri et al 2015). For its part, mainstream research on executives has concentrated on elected presidents and prime ministers rather than on actual candidates (Botella et al 2010;Carreras 2017;Siavelis & Morgenstern 2008;Samuels & Shugart 2010; but see Astudillo 2015) or it has focused on party leaders under the assumption that the latter tend to be the executive candidates (Sandri et al 2015).…”

“…For its part, mainstream research on executives has concentrated on elected presidents and prime ministers rather than on actual candidates (Botella et al 2010;Carreras 2017;Siavelis & Morgenstern 2008;Samuels & Shugart 2010; but see Astudillo 2015) or it has focused on party leaders under the assumption that the latter tend to be the executive candidates (Sandri et al 2015). Furthermore, these studies have so far assumed that individual characteristics as well as organisational and institutional factors weigh in similarly for male and female politicians.…”

The Presidential Party: A Theoretical Framework for Comparative Analysis

“…Therefore, he or she needs to build ad hoc parliamentary majorities to support his or her legislative activity. In particular, the independent candidates are in fact 'outsiders' or 'newcomers' (Carreras, 2012) who create their own party (Calise, 2015) to launch and support their candidacy for the presidential election (especially in Latin America as indicated by the cases of Fujimori in Peru, Correa in Ecuador or Uribe in Colombia) (Carreras, 2014(Carreras, , 2017. This situation can potentially lead to a surge of president-legislature conflict.…”

Australian bicameralism as semi-parliamentarism: patterns of majority formation in 29 democracies

“…It also tends to undermine the unity and programmatic capacities of political parties (Carey 2009;Passarelli 2015;Samuels and Shugart 2010). Finally, it facilitates the rise and electoral success of politically inexperienced outsiders or newcomers, who may, once in office, subvert democracy (Carreras 2017;Linz 1994).…”