Integrated crop-disease models: New frontiers in systems thinking

Bondad, Jamina; Harrison, Matthew T.; Whish, Jeremy; Sprague, S. J.; Barry, KM

doi:10.1016/j.farsys.2023.100004

Cited by 10 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 156 publications

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“…Despite having the same accuracy in predicting the timing of pseudothecial maturation and ascospore release in new environments and stubble management as with the Sporacle Ezy, the alternative modelling approach is more generically scalable (i.e., not calibrated with site-speci c parameters, which can lead to over-tting; (Harrison et al 2019) and able to describe processes driven by crop and environmental signals. Processbased simulations, such as the hydro-thermal time approach, that capture the disease responses to the environment and crop management practices can provide signi cant contributions to the strategic planning of preventive measures for blackleg disease under changing climatic conditions (Bondad et al 2023). Fractions of mature pseudothecia (•) and empty pseudothecia (○) at each assessment timepoint on "standing" stubble and "lying" stubble collected from a commercial crop grown in the 2020 season at Horsham, VIC.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Existing agronomic interventions are targeted to reduce the density of ascospore inoculum and reduce the risk of infection at the early seedling stage. These include stubble management (burning/burying), crop rotation (> 2 years between canola crops), isolation of crops from infected stubble, choice of sowing date, use of cultivars with speci c and/or partial resistances, and chemical treatments (Bondad et al 2023). Reduced exposure to ascospores by burial, burning, isolation or long rotations, and early sowing effectively decreases the severity of blackleg disease epidemics (Aubertot et al 2004 and in crop during early seedling stages reduces the severity of infection (R. K. Khangura and Barbetti 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling crop management and environmental effects on the development of Leptosphaeria maculans pseudothecia

Bondad,

Whish,

Sprague

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The timing of ascospore release is critical in the prediction of Blackleg infection, particularly if the timing of spore release coincides with early development of canola seedlings. Historically, prediction models have used average daily temperature and an environment calibration to estimate a minimum rainfall amount to trigger development. This paper describes a different approach based on hydro-thermal time, where soil evaporation and rainfall are used as a surrogate to estimate when the stubble is wet, and temperature is accumulated on an hourly basis. Furthermore, the stubble orientation due to differing harvest management practices is considered, as stubble knocked down has greater contact with the soil compared to stubble which remains in a standing position. Pseudothecia and ascospore development in the standing and lying treatments was monitored weekly to measure the rate of development in diverse environments. The new modelling approach was used to describe the pseudothecial maturation rate and predict the timing of ascospore release. Subsequently, a range of Australian and international datasets were used to assess the robustness and accuracy of this new model’s predictions. When tested across multiple locations and seasons globally, the hydro-thermal time approach had similar performance (R2 = 0.94, RMSD = 16 days) to the existing Sporacle Ezy model (R2 = 0.90, RMSD = 22 days), but without the need to calibrate in different environments and account for the delayed rate of development in standing stubble. Integrating this new approach into early warning systems for canola growers will help in the management of control measures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling crop management and environmental effects on the development of Leptosphaeria maculans pseudothecia

Bondad,

Whish,

Sprague

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Early Crop Disease Identification Using Multi-fork Tree Networks and Microbial Data Intelligence

Ittannavar,

Khot,

Vishnoi

et al. 2024

Microorganisms for Sustainability

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Modelling crop management and environmental effects on the development of Leptosphaeria maculans pseudothecia

Bondad,

Whish,

Sprague

et al. 2024

Eur J Plant Pathol

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The timing of ascospore release is critical in the prediction of blackleg infection, particularly if the timing of spore release coincides with early development of canola seedlings. Historically, prediction models have used average daily temperature and an environment calibration to estimate a minimum rainfall amount to trigger development. This paper describes a different approach based on hydro-thermal time, where soil evaporation and rainfall are used as a surrogate to estimate when the stubble is wet, and temperature is accumulated on an hourly basis. Furthermore, the stubble orientation due to differing harvest management practices is considered, as stubble knocked down has greater contact with the soil compared to stubble which remains in a standing position. Pseudothecia and ascospore development in the standing and lying treatments was monitored weekly to measure the rate of development in diverse environments. The new modelling approach was used to describe the pseudothecial maturation rate and predict the timing of ascospore release. Subsequently, a range of Australian and international datasets were used to assess the robustness and accuracy of this new model’s predictions. When tested across multiple locations and seasons globally, the hydro-thermal time approach had similar performance (R2 = 0.94, RMSD = 16 days) to the existing Sporacle Ezy model (R2 = 0.90, RMSD = 22 days), but without the need to calibrate in different environments and account for the delayed rate of development in standing stubble. Integrating this new approach into early warning systems for canola growers will help in the management of control measures.

show abstract

Integrated crop-disease models: New frontiers in systems thinking

Cited by 10 publications

References 156 publications

Modelling crop management and environmental effects on the development of Leptosphaeria maculans pseudothecia

Modelling crop management and environmental effects on the development of Leptosphaeria maculans pseudothecia

Early Crop Disease Identification Using Multi-fork Tree Networks and Microbial Data Intelligence

Modelling crop management and environmental effects on the development of Leptosphaeria maculans pseudothecia

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