Integrated Earthquake Fire Risk Evaluation Based on Single Building Fire Probability Applicable to All Map Scales

Kato, Takaaki; Hong, Cheng Shong; Yusfu, Yalkun; Yamaguchi, Makoto; Natori, Akiko

doi:10.2328/jnds.28.61

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The ignition estimation models include regression analysis to estimate the ignition rate based on number of ignitions and earthquake intensity data [16][17][18][19], and a model to estimate the number of ignitions using earthquake and fire-related data (earthquake intensity, building use, and season) [20]. The fire-burned rate estimation models include methods that use dynamic fire simulations [5,8], regression model-based static fire-spread analyses [10][11][12][13][14][15], and clustering techniques. Dynamic fire simulations involve calculating the number of fully burned structures using FEMA's HAZUS-MH earthquake model [5], which itself is based on the Hamada [6][7], and…”

Section: Previous Ffe Risk Assessment Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other methods [9][10][11][12][13] exist for calculating the fire-burned rate from wood building coverage ratio associated with the spread of fire. The methodology [14] applying clustering technique involves calculating the regional fire-burned rate using the clustering technique proposed by Kato et al [15]. Clustering means forming groups of buildings by comparing the distance among neighboring buildings with the fire-spread distance determined from the fireresistant structure type of the building.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Static Analysis-based Rapid Fire-Following Earthquake Risk Assessment Method using Simple Building and GIS Information

Kang,

Lee

et al. 2024

Preprint

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After the occurrences of large-scale earthquakes, regional secondary damage (e.g., fire-following earthquake) can result in tremendous losses of life, properties, and buildings. To reduce these disaster risks, fire-following earthquake assessment method composed of ignition and fire-burned rate estimation models were utilized. However, the previous methods required complex building/GIS information and large amount of time to consider various regional characteristics. This paper proposed static analysis-based rapid fire-following earthquake assessment method using simple information and implemented it to Pohan City, South Korea. Based on the previous studies, the best-fit model for the ignition rate estimation was selected, and the cluster-based fire-burned rate model simulated using simple building information (e.g., construction year, building occupancy, story, and total floor area) in public building database was developed. For the fire-burned rate model, the fire-resistant structural types were defined using the public database, and this was utilized to group or cluster buildings in a regional level by comparison between fire-spread distance for each structural type and adjacent distance among the buildings. This rapid method was demonstrated as follows: (1) the selected ignition rate model predicted the same ignition numbers with the actual reported number, and (2) the fire-burned rate model estimated fire-spread areas with a marginal difference compared to the dynamic fire spread simulation.

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Section: Previous Ffe Risk Assessment Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Static Analysis-based Rapid Fire-Following Earthquake Risk Assessment Method using Simple Building and GIS Information

Kang,

Lee

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Several approaches have been taken so far, generally by using empirical-or GIS based-fire spread models [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. In these models, rates of fire spread are usually formulated as functions of macroscopic parameters of the relevant city area, such as wind speed, building scale, building-to-building separation, construction types, etc..…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk and Behavior of Fire Spread in A Densely-built Urban Area

Himoto¹,

Akimoto²,

Hokugo³

et al. 2008

Fire Saf. Sci.

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A fire staring in a densely-built urban area easily spreads to adjacent buildings. In the case of large earthquakes in which multiple fires may break out simultaneously, the spread of such fires may overwhelm the ability of firefighters and damage large areas. In this study, fire spread simulations were carried out in order to investigate behavior of fire spread in Kyoto Higashiyama area, one of the representatives of densely-built urban areas in Japan. A physics-based model was used in which the following mechanisms of fire spread are considered: thermal radiation heat transfer from fire-involved buildings; elevation of ambient temperature by wind-blown fire plumes; and spotting ignition by firebrands. The risk of fire spread was also analyzed by the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the expected magnitude of loss. The effect of uncertainty of the location of fire origin and the weather conditions was investigated. KEYWORDS: risk assessment, modeling, urban conflagrations, densely-built environment NOMENCLATURE LISTING

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Static analysis-based rapid fire-following earthquake risk assessment method using simple building and GIS information

Kang,

Lee

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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After the occurrences of large-scale earthquakes, secondary damage (e.g., fire following earthquake) can result in tremendous losses of life, properties, and buildings. To reduce these disaster risks, fire following earthquake assessment methods composed of ignition and fire-burned rate estimation models have been utilized. However, previous methods required for large amounts of building and GIS information, and complex modeling and analysis processes, leading to significant time consumption. This paper proposed a static analysis-based rapid fire following earthquake assessment method using simple information and implemented it in Pohang City, South Korea. Based on previous studies, the best-fit model for the ignition rate estimation was selected, and a cluster-based fire-burned rate estimation model was developed using simple building information (e.g., construction year, building occupancy, story, and total floor area) from the public building database (e.g., building registration data). For the fire-burned rate estimation model, fire-resistant structure types were defined using simple building information, and this was utilized to generate clusters of buildings at a regional level by comparing fire-spread distances for each fire-resistant structure type with adjacent distances among the buildings. This proposed method was applied to Pohang City, South Korea, and validated as follows: (1) the selected ignition rate model predicted similar ignition numbers to the actual reported number (actual number of ignitions = 4 vs. predicted number of ignitions = 3), and (2) the fire-burned rate model estimated fire-burned areas with a marginal difference compared to the fire spread simulation (fire-burned area using the proposed model = 13,703.6 m 2 vs. results of fire spread simulation = 16,800.0 m 2 , with an error of approximately 18%).

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Integrated Earthquake Fire Risk Evaluation Based on Single Building Fire Probability Applicable to All Map Scales

Cited by 4 publications

References 1 publication

Static Analysis-based Rapid Fire-Following Earthquake Risk Assessment Method using Simple Building and GIS Information

Static Analysis-based Rapid Fire-Following Earthquake Risk Assessment Method using Simple Building and GIS Information

Risk and Behavior of Fire Spread in A Densely-built Urban Area

Static analysis-based rapid fire-following earthquake risk assessment method using simple building and GIS information

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