Integrated models of livestock systems for climate change studies. 2. Intensive systems

Abstract

The potential impact of climate change by the year 2050 on intensive livestock systems in Britain is assessed through the use of simulation models of farming systems. The submodels comprise livestock feeding, livestock thermal balance and the thermal balance of controlled environment buildings and a stochastic weather generator. These are integrated to form system models for growing pigs and broiler chickens. They are applied to scenarios typical of SE England, which is the warmest region of the country and represents the worst case. For both species the frequency of severe heat stress is substantially increased, with a consequent risk of mortality. To offset this, it would be necessary to reduce stocking densities considerably, or to invest in improved ventilation or cooling equipment. Other effects on production are likely to be small

Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies

“…In terms of livestock production in intensive systems, warmer conditions in the coming decades might trigger the implementation of enhanced cooling and ventilation systems, or alternatively it may render necessary a reduction in stocking densities (Turnpenny et al 2001). The former of such strategies would clearly counter on-farms mitigation efforts due to the associated increase in energy use, while the latter would greatly contribute to mitigation of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases.…”

Avian necrotic enteritis: Experimental models, host immunity, pathogenesis, risk factors, and vaccine development

“…As a consequence of the population explosion, food animal and poultry production must confront a new array of challenges. Among these are global food security, climate change, emerging infectious diseases, a regulatory ban on antimicrobials, high-density production conditions, and waste management (Grasty, 1999;Turnpenny et al, 2001;Bohannon, 2004). Approximately 71 million tons of poultry meat were produced worldwide in 2009 (USDA-FAS, 2009).…”

Animal health aspects of adaptation to climate change: beating the heat and parasites in a warming Europe

“…However, current policy must also consider other consequences and sequelae of the adaptations; thus, for each system, it is important to model holistically all aspects of the adaptive strategies. A study by Turnpenny et al (2001) recognised the importance of examining the impacts of climate change on intensive systems and has proposed models that facilitate identification of risks of thermal stress and identifies some adaptations (e.g. changing stocking densities and improved ventilation regimes that might reduce such risks).…”