Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration

Paquet, Matthieu; Knape, Jonas; Arlt, Debora; Forslund, Pär; Pärt, Tomas; Flagstad, Øystein; Jones, Carl G.; Nicoll, Malcolm A. C.; Norris, Ken; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Sand, Håkan; Svensson, Linn; Tatayah, Vikash; Wabakken, Petter; Wikenros, Camilla; Åkesson, Mikael; Low, Matthew

doi:10.1111/2041-210x.13667

Cited by 22 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…First, the size of a study site directly influences estimates of immigration (a smaller area leads to higher apparent immigration; Millon et al, 2019), although this should render our results even more conservative since the Vercors site is smaller than the Valais one. Another caveat is reduced reliability of immigration estimates from IPMs, in particular of their temporal variation, when not informed directly by data (Riecke et al, 2019;Paquet et al, 2021).…”

Section: Demographic Characteristics Of the Two Alpine Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, a hierarchical formulation enables the separation of sampling from process variance, which translates into more reliable estimates of temporal variation in parameters (Kéry and Schaub, 2012). Third, it is possible to estimate parameters about which explicit information is lacking, such as immigration or productivity (Abadi et al, 2010;Schaub and Fletcher, 2015), albeit this requires some caution (Riecke et al, 2019;Paquet et al, 2021;Schaub and Kéry, 2022). All these advantages can be decisive when relationships between demographic parameters and variation in population growth rate or environmental variables need to be assessed (Besbeas et al, 2002;Schaub and Abadi, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Barras

Blache²,

Schaub

et al. 2021

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Species- and population-specific responses to their environment may depend to a large extent on the spatial variation in life-history traits and in demographic processes of local population dynamics. Yet, those parameters and their variability remain largely unknown for many cold-adapted species, which are exposed to particularly rapid rates of environmental change. Here, we compared the demographic traits and dynamics for an emblematic bird species of European mountain ecosystems, the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus). Using integrated population models fitted in a Bayesian framework, we estimated the survival probability, productivity and immigration of two populations from the Western European Alps, in France (over 11 years) and Switzerland (over 6 years). Juvenile apparent survival was lower and immigration rate higher in the Swiss compared to the French population, with the temporal variation in population growth rate driven by different demographic processes. Yet, when compared to populations in the northwestern part of the range, in Scotland, these two Alpine populations both showed a much lower productivity and higher adult survival, indicating a slower life-history strategy. Our results suggest that demographic characteristics can substantially vary across the discontinuous range of this passerine species, essentially due to contrasted, possibly locally evolved life-history strategies. This study therefore raises the question of whether flexibility in life-history traits is widespread among boreo-alpine species and if it might provide adaptive potential for coping with current environmental change.

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Section: Demographic Characteristics Of the Two Alpine Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Barras

Blache²,

Schaub

et al. 2021

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…We selected a gamma distribution to impute immigration, as opposed to a Poisson, to allow the mean and variance terms to differ. This is similar to parameterising this prior distribution using a Poisson regression model with a log link function (Paquet et al 2021). However, using a Poisson model reduced model fit and convergence (Supporting information).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal change in the contribution of immigration to population growth in a wild seabird experiencing rapid population decline

2022

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The source-sink paradigm predicts that populations in poorer-quality habitats ('sinks') persist due to continued immigration from more-productive areas ('sources'). However, this categorisation of populations assumes that habitat quality is fixed through time. Globally, we are in an era of wide-spread habitat degradation, and consequently there is a pressing need to examine dispersal dynamics in relation to local population change. We used an integrated population model to quantify immigration dynamics in a longlived colonial seabird, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, that is classified as globally 'Vulnerable'. We then used a transient life table response experiment to evaluate the contribution of temporal variation in vital rates, immigration rates and population structure to realised population growth. Finally, we used a simulation analysis to examine the importance of immigration to population dynamics. We show that the contribution of immigration changed as the population declined. This study demonstrates that immigration is unlikely to maintain vulnerable sink populations indefinitely, emphasising the need for temporal analyses of dispersal to identify shifts that may have dramatic consequences for population viability.

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“…Therefore, accurate estimation of both demographic parameters and quantitative criteria, accounting for IUCN definitions, is required for the adaptive management of reintroduction programmes. However, acquiring data on all indicators and their temporal variation is often challenging (Paquet et al 2021). Therefore, twostep modelling approaches such as mark-resight models and population viability analysis (PVA) have often been used (Mihoub et al 2014, Cremona et al 2017, Zhang et al 2021).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, acquiring data on all indicators and their temporal variation is often challenging (Paquet et al . 2021). Therefore, two‐step modelling approaches such as mark–resight models and population viability analysis (PVA) have often been used (Mihoub et al .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of ongoing Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon) reintroduction using an integrated population model and Bayesian population viability analysis

Okahisa

Nagata

2022

Ibis

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Reintroduction has often been used as a technique for re-establishing self-sustaining animal populations that have become extinct within their indigenous range. To achieve conservation success, it is essential to accurately assess the demographic parameters and the IUCN Red List criteria of the population. However, acquiring data on all indicators and estimating criteria according to established definitions can be challenging. Here, we developed an integrated population model (IPM) and population viability analysis (PVA) framework to estimate all demographic parameters and criteria for a reintroduced population of Crested Ibis Nipponia nippon, and to project population dynamics under a range of release scenarios on Sado Island, Japan. Our IPM-PVA framework integrated roost count and mark-resight data for 415 released and 203 wild-hatched individuals, as well as reproductive performance for a total of 575 pairs. We aimed to assess survival, reproductive success, population size, number of mature individuals and population projection. In the first year after release, the estimated apparent annual survival rate was 0.566 [Bayesian credible intervals (CRI) 0.518-0.614]; however, this rate increased after 1 year (0.865; CRI 0.836-0.892). Wild-hatched juveniles exhibited a high survival rate (0.757; CRI 0.670-0.838) that was just lower than that of adults (0.899; CRI 0.844-0.949). The reproductive success rate varied with pair attributes . Total population size was estimated to be 457 individuals (CRI 384-525), with 261 mature individuals (CRI 211-304) in June 2021. The probability of Crested Ibis extinction in the next five generations was 0%, even if the release was discontinued. Our comprehensive case study demonstrated the effectiveness of IPM-PVA for the evaluation of ongoing reintroduction programmes.

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Integrated population models poorly estimate the demographic contribution of immigration

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri bution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 22 publications

References 52 publications

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Temporal change in the contribution of immigration to population growth in a wild seabird experiencing rapid population decline

Evaluation of ongoing Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon) reintroduction using an integrated population model and Bayesian population viability analysis

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