Integrated spatiotemporal modelling of bioenergy production potentials, agricultural land use, and related <scp>GHG</scp> balances; demonstrated for Ukraine

Hilst, Floor van der; Verstegen, Judith A.; Zheliezna, Tetiana; Drozdova, O. I.; Faaij, André

doi:10.1002/bbb.1471

Cited by 16 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…For this reason, the Colombian case study focused solely on agricultural residues (Elbersen et al, accepted for publication) . In the case of the Ukraine, there was access to detailed data on the potential for energy crops . For other case studies this data was not available.…”

Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sourcing overseas biomass for EU ambitions: assessing net sustainable export potential from various sourcing countries

Mai-Moulin

Fingerman

Elbersen

et al. 2018

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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Low‐cost sustainable biomass availability in the European Union may not be able to meet increasing demand; exploring the option of importing biomass is therefore imperative for the years to come. This article assesses sustainable biomass export potential from Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Kenya, Ukraine, and the United States by applying a number of sustainability criteria. Only biomass types with the highest potential are selected, to take advantage of economies of scale, e.g. pulpwood, wood waste, and residues in the United States, and agricultural residues in Ukraine. This study found that, except for the United States, pellet markets in the sourcing regions are largely undeveloped. The export potential depends strongly on pellet mill capacity and assumed growth rates in the pellet industry. Results show that the United States, Ukraine, Indonesia, and Brazil offer the highest biomass export potential. In the Business As Usual 2030 scenario, up to 204 PJ could potentially be mobilized; in the High Export scenario this could increase to 1423 PJ, with 89% of the potential being available for costs ranging from 6.4 to 15 €/GJ. These potentials meet the European Commission requirements for a 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions set in the Renewable Energy Directive. The total export potentials do not reflect the net possible import potentials to the European Union, as biomass could be imported to other countries where there is a demand for it, where less strict sustainability requirements are applied, and which are proximate to the sourcing regions, notably South Korea, Japan, and China. © 2018 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…21 In the case of the Ukraine, there was access to detailed data on the potential for energy crops. 22 For other case studies this data was not available. In the US case study the calculated potential was based on existing practices.…”

Section: • Emissions From the Entire Supply Chains Of Biomassmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sourcing overseas biomass for EU ambitions: assessing net sustainable export potential from various sourcing countries

Mai-Moulin

Fingerman

Elbersen

et al. 2018

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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“…By running the model in Monte Carlo, (un‐)certainties in model projections can be explored (Verstegen et al., ; Verstegen, van der Hilst, et al., ). The model has been applied in several regional and national case studies (Diogo et al., ; van der Hilst, Verstegen, Zheliezna, Drozdova, & Faaij, ; van der Hilst et al., ; Verstegen, Karssenberg, van der Hilst, & Faaij, ; Verstegen et al., ; Verstegen, van der Hilst, et al., ). The adaptations and calibration of the PLUC model for the application to this case study in Brazil are described in Verstegen, van der Hilst, et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping land use changes resulting from biofuel production and the effect of mitigation measures

Hilst

Verstegen

Woltjer³

et al. 2018

GCB Bioenergy

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Many of the sustainability concerns of bioenergy are related to direct or indirect land use change (LUC) resulting from bioenergy feedstock production. The environmental and socio‐economic impacts of LUC highly depend on the site‐specific biophysical and socio‐economic conditions. The objective of this study is to spatiotemporally assess the potential LUC dynamics resulting from an increased biofuel demand, the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the potential effect of LUC mitigation measures. This assessment is demonstrated for LUC dynamics in Brazil towards 2030, considering an increase in the global demand for bioethanol as well as other agricultural commodities. The potential effects of three LUC mitigation measures (increased agricultural productivity, shift to second‐generation ethanol, and strict conservation policies) are evaluated by using a scenario approach. The novel modelling framework developed consists of the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET, the spatiotemporal land use allocation model PLUC, and a GIS‐based carbon module. The modelling simulations illustrate where LUC as a result of an increased global ethanol demand (+26 × 109 L ethanol production in Brazil) is likely to occur. When no measures are taken, sugar cane production is projected to expand mostly at the expense of agricultural land which subsequently leads to the loss of natural vegetation (natural forest and grass and shrubland) in the Cerrado and Amazon. The related losses of above and below ground biomass and soil organic carbon result in the average emission of 26 g CO2‐eq/MJ bioethanol. All LUC mitigation measures show potential to reduce the loss of natural vegetation (18%–96%) as well as the LUC‐related GHG emissions (7%–60%). Although there are several uncertainties regarding the exact location and magnitude of LUC and related GHG emissions, this study shows that the implementation of LUC mitigation measures could have a substantial contribution to the reduction of LUC‐related emissions of bioethanol. However, an integrated approach targeting all land uses is required to obtain substantial and sustained LUC‐related GHG emission reductions in general.

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“…Yet, they do not investigate the effect of energy crop production expansion on the total GHG balance of the agricultural and bioenergy sector (Valin et al, 2013). This effect is examined by de Wit et al (2014), Melillo et al (2009) and van der Hilst et al (2014). de Wit et al (2014) and Melillo et al (2009) assess the net GHG impacts of bioenergy expansion while mitigating ILUC through agricultural intensification on a European and global scale, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, their GHG balances are not very detailed as these only account for nitrogen emissions, net soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes and abated fossil emissions (Melillo et al, 2009;de Wit et al, 2014). van der Hilst et al (2014) perform a more detailed regional study of the net GHG balance in Ukraine. Valin et al (2013) show that such a regional study is important because the GHG impacts of agricultural intensification depend on region-specific factors such as, for example, the degree of intensification possible based on the current yield gap.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

2016

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The implementation of measures to increase productivity and resource efficiency in food and bioenergy chains as well as to more sustainably manage land use can significantly increase the biofuel production potential while limiting the risk of causing indirect land use change (ILUC). However, the application of these measures may influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production. This study applies a novel, integrated approach to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production for three ILUC mitigation scenarios, representing a low, medium and high miscanthus‐based ethanol production potential, and for three agricultural intensification pathways in terms of sustainability in Lublin province in 2020. Generally, the ILUC mitigation scenarios attain lower net annual emissions compared to a baseline scenario that excludes ILUC mitigation and bioethanol production. However, the reduction potential significantly depends on the intensification pathway considered. For example, in the moderate ILUC mitigation scenario, the net annual GHG emissions in the case study are 2.3 MtCO2‐eq yr−1 (1.8 tCO2‐eq ha−1 yr−1) for conventional intensification and −0.8 MtCO2‐eq yr−1 (−0.6 tCO2‐eq ha−1 yr−1) for sustainable intensification, compared to 3.0 MtCO2‐eq yr−1 (2.3 tCO2‐eq ha−1 yr−1) in the baseline scenario. In addition, the intensification pathway is found to be more influential for the GHG balance than the ILUC mitigation scenario, indicating the importance of how agricultural intensification is implemented in practice. Furthermore, when the net emissions are included in the assessment of GHG emissions from bioenergy, the ILUC mitigation scenarios often abate GHG emissions compared to gasoline. But sustainable intensification is required to attain GHG abatement potentials of 90% or higher. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on biodiversity, water quantity and quality, soil quality and air quality also emphasizes the importance of sustainable intensification.

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Integrated spatiotemporal modelling of bioenergy production potentials, agricultural land use, and related GHG balances; demonstrated for Ukraine

Cited by 16 publications

References 54 publications

Sourcing overseas biomass for EU ambitions: assessing net sustainable export potential from various sourcing countries

Sourcing overseas biomass for EU ambitions: assessing net sustainable export potential from various sourcing countries

Mapping land use changes resulting from biofuel production and the effect of mitigation measures

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

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