Integrating base rate data in violence risk assessments at capital sentencing

Abstract

Prediction of violence in capital sentencing has been controversial. In the absence of a scientific basis for risk assessment, mental health professionals offering opinions in the capital sentencing context are prone to errors. Actuarial or group statistical data, known as base rates, have proven far superior to other methods for reducing predictive errors in many contexts, including risk assessment. Actuarial follow‐up data on violent recidivism of capital murderers in prison and post release have been compiled and analyzed to demonstrate available base rates for use by mental health experts conducting risk assessments pertaining to capital sentencing. This paper also reviews various methods for individualizing the application of base rates to specific cases. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effects of rational and experiential information processing of expert testimony in death penalty cases

“…execution in Texas and 21 other states (Cunningham & Reidy, 1998), or potential life detention in the 16 jurisdictions with sexually violent predator laws (Krauss & O'Connor, 2003)) and the poor scientific quality of such expert testimony in practice, it is clear that more research needs to be performed on the effects of both more and less scientifically valid expert testimony in these cases. This study was undertaken to add to the existing literature on this phenomenon, and to test a potential explanatory theory, cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST), that may offer insight into why jurors may prefer, or at least are more influenced by, less scientific expert testimony in these decisions.…”

Antisocial personality disorder and psychopathy: diagnostic dilemmas in classifying patterns of antisocial behavior in sentencing evaluations

“…This descriptive and explanatory approach is also more likely to assist risk assessment as case speci®c information is used to individualize base rate data (Cunningham & Reidy, 1998). This descriptive and explanatory approach is also more likely to assist risk assessment as case speci®c information is used to individualize base rate data (Cunningham & Reidy, 1998).…”

Probability of Criminal Acts of Violence: A Test of Jury Predictive Accuracy

“…Similarly, the Governor's Commission on Capital Punishment (Illinois, ) specified that justifications that would minimize arbitrary application of the death penalty included: “Incapacitating persons with a clearly demonstrated propensity to murder again” (p. 69). A number of scholars (see Clausen‐Schulz, Pearce, & Schopp, 2004; Cunningham & Reidy, ; Cunningham et al, ; Edens et al, ; Slobogin, ) have asserted that a preventative intervention of death should bear some reasonable proportionality to the act(s) that are presumed to occur in its absence. Such a proportionality analysis would arguably require acts that would result in major injuries or death.…”