Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia

Harb, Mostapha; Garschagen, Matthias; Cotti, Davide; Krätzschmar, Elke; Baccouche, Hayet; Khaled, Karem Ben; Bellert, Felicitas; Chebil, Bouraoui; Fredj, Anis Ben; Ayed, Sonia; Shekhar, Himanshu; Hagenlocher, Michael

doi:10.3390/urbansci4010010

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 21 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Research points to a possible nexus between the urbanisation process and the threat of disasters [34][35][36]. Shekhar et al [37] reveal that the leading urban centres are highly susceptible to global risks, including infectious diseases.…”

Section: Risk Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 resilience index in European Union countries based on their risk and readiness scale

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Addressing risks and pandemics at a country level is a complex task that requires transdisciplinary approaches. The paper aims to identify groups of the European Union countries characterized by a similar COVID-19 Resilience Index (CRI). Developed in the paper CRI index reflects the countries’ COVID-19 risk and their readiness for a crisis situation, including a pandemic. Moreover, the study detects the factors that significantly differentiate the distinguished groups. According to our research, Bulgaria, Hungary, Malta, and Poland have the lowest COVID-19 Resilience Index score, with Croatia, Greece, Czechia, and Slovakia following close. At the same time, Ireland and Scandinavian countries occupy the top of the leader board, followed by Luxemburg. The Kruskal-Wallis test results indicate four COVID-19 risk indicators that significantly differentiate the countries in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the significant factors are not only COVID-19-related factors, i.e., the changes in residential human mobility, the stringency of anti-COVID-19 policy, but also strictly environmental factors, namely pollution and material footprint. It indicates that the most critical global environmental issues might be crucial in the phase of a future pandemic. Moreover, we detect eight readiness factors that significantly differentiate the analysed country groups. Among the significant factors are the economic indicators such as GDP per capita and labour markets, the governance indicators such as Rule of Law, Access to Information, Implementation and Adaptability measures, and social indicators such as Tertiary Attainment and Research, Innovation, and Infrastructure.

show abstract

Section: Risk Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 resilience index in European Union countries based on their risk and readiness scale

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Researchers have indicated a possible nexus between the process of urbanization and risk from disasters ( Harb et al, 2020 ) including the spread of infectious diseases (S. H. Ali & Keil, 2006 ). The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030) from United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), recognizes urbanization as an emergent context and driver for risk ( Pearson & Pelling, 2015 ).…”

Section: Urbanization - a Disaster Risk Driver!mentioning

confidence: 99%

Are leading urban centers predisposed to global risks- An analysis of the global south from COVID-19 perspective

Shekhar

Rautela

Maqsood

et al. 2022

Habitat International

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

COVID-19 initially spread among prominent global cities and soon to the urban centers of countries across the globe. While cities are the hotbeds of activities, they also seem highly exposed to global risks including the pandemic. Using the case of COVID-19 and World Risk Index framework, this paper examines if the leading cities from the global south are inherently vulnerable and exposed to global risks and can they exacerbate the overall risk of their respective nations too. Compared against their respective national averages, most of the 20 cities from 10 countries analyzed in this paper, have higher exposure, lower adaptive capacity, higher coping capacity and varied susceptibility. As this relative understanding is based on respective national averages which often are lower than the global standards, even high performance on certain indicators may still result in elevated predisposition. This paper concludes that the leading urban centers from the global south are highly likely to be predisposed to global risks due to their inherent vulnerability and exposure, and many of the drivers of this predisposition are related to the process of urbanization itself. This predisposition can enhance the overall exposure and vulnerability of the nation they are located in.

show abstract

“…All these coefficients were initialised with value zero at coarse calibration which limits up to value 100. The change in the coefficient values in different phase impacts the growth rules (Harb et al 2020).…”

Section: Sleuth Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban modelling and forecasting of landuse using SLEUTH model

Kumar

Agrawal

2022

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The present study performs landcover modelling using the SLEUTH model. The urban land use changing factors are calibrated to predict the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) for a densely populated and developing smart city, Prayagraj, India. This research aims to use the SLEUTH model for simulating the future urban growth with the help of historical LULC (1990LULC ( -2020, road network and elevation data. The influence of road gravity and slope resistant coefficients is very significant in this study's outcome. The built-up area of the region increased from 40.22 km 2 (5.10% of total area) in 1990 to 85.89 km 2 (10.89%) in 2020. According to prediction results, in the next 20 years, the built-up growth rate would be 1.9% and approximated built-up area would be 118.66 km 2 (14.98%) in the year 2040. The quality of the result has been quantified in terms of best fit value of Optimal SLEUTH Metric (OSM) and validated against the existing LULC. The study utilises a spatially explicit urban growth model with 30 m resolution remote sensing data and provides future landuse of Prayagraj city.

show abstract

Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia

Cited by 11 publications

References 21 publications

COVID-19 resilience index in European Union countries based on their risk and readiness scale

COVID-19 resilience index in European Union countries based on their risk and readiness scale

Are leading urban centers predisposed to global risks- An analysis of the global south from COVID-19 perspective

Urban modelling and forecasting of landuse using SLEUTH model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About