Integrating Metapopulation Dynamics into a Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model: Assessing Risk of Pesticides to Chinook Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</i>) in an Ecological Context

Mitchell, Chelsea J.; Lawrence, Eric J.; Chu, Valerie R.; Harris, Meagan J; Landis, Wayne G.; Stackelberg, Katherine E von; Stark, John D.

doi:10.1002/ieam.4357

Cited by 19 publications

(33 citation statements)

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“…Such an attempt has been suggested to estimate potential combined effects of climate change and chemical exposure and may be extended to an exposome assessment ( Hooper et al, 2013 ). Approaches that used Bayesian network models represent a further example to estimate the impact of chemical exposure versus other environmental factors (e.g., oxygen levels, temperature, habitat, population structure; Mitchell et al, 2021 ) with a focus on population development and could be applied in the exposome assessment as well.…”

Section: Methods To Measure and Interpret The Eco-exposomementioning

confidence: 99%

The Eco‐Exposome Concept: Supporting an Integrated Assessment of Mixtures of Environmental Chemicals

Scholz

Nichols

Escher

et al. 2021

Enviro Toxic and Chemistry

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Organisms are exposed to ever-changing complex mixtures of chemicals over the course of their lifetime. The need to more comprehensively describe this exposure and relate it to adverse health effects has led to formulation of the exposome concept in human toxicology. Whether this concept has utility in the context of environmental hazard and risk assessment has not been discussed in detail. In this Critical Perspective, we propose-by analogy to the human exposometo define the eco-exposome as the totality of the internal exposure (anthropogenic and natural chemicals, their biotransformation products or adducts, and endogenous signaling molecules that may be sensitive to an anthropogenic chemical exposure) over the lifetime of an ecologically relevant organism. We describe how targeted and nontargeted chemical analyses and bioassays can be employed to characterize this exposure and discuss how the adverse outcome pathway concept could be used to link this exposure to adverse effects. Available methods, their limitations, and/or requirement for improvements for practical application of the eco-exposome concept are discussed. Even though analysis of the eco-exposome can be resource-intensive and challenging, new approaches and technologies make this assessment increasingly feasible. Furthermore, an improved understanding of mechanistic relationships between external chemical exposure(s), internal chemical exposure(s), and biological effects could result in the development of proxies, that is, relatively simple chemical and biological measurements that could be used to complement internal exposure assessment or infer the internal exposure when it is difficult to measure.

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Section: Methods To Measure and Interpret The Eco-exposomementioning

confidence: 99%

The Eco‐Exposome Concept: Supporting an Integrated Assessment of Mixtures of Environmental Chemicals

Scholz

Nichols

Escher

et al. 2021

Enviro Toxic and Chemistry

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…They can offer a transparent way of evaluating the required characterization of uncertainty for pesticide risk assessment as well as for ecological risk assessment in general (Carriger & Newman, 2012). Moreover, their application is not only carried out for risk estimation (e.g., risk quotient) but also used to predict ecological effect from stressors more directly (e.g., decline in species abundance [Mitchell et al, 2021]) and to develop quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways (Moe, Wolf, et al, 2021). Dreier et al (2020) pointed out that the use of effect and exposure distribution allows for a competent risk assessment and communication approach.…”

Section: Evaluation Of the Bayesian Network Approach For Risk Charact...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Bayesian network for probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides

Mentzel

Grung

Tollefsen

et al. 2021

Integr Envir Assess & Manag

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Conventional environmental risk assessment of chemicals is based on a calculated risk quotient, representing the ratio of exposure to effects of the chemical, in combination with assessment factors to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment approaches can offer more transparency by using probability distributions for exposure and/or effects to account for variability and uncertainty. In this study, a probabilistic approach using Bayesian network modeling is explored as an alternative to traditional risk calculation. Bayesian networks can serve as meta‐models that link information from several sources and offer a transparent way of incorporating the required characterization of uncertainty for environmental risk assessment. To this end, a Bayesian network has been developed and parameterized for the pesticides azoxystrobin, metribuzin, and imidacloprid. We illustrate the development from deterministic (traditional) risk calculation, via intermediate versions, to fully probabilistic risk characterization using azoxystrobin as an example. We also demonstrate the seasonal risk calculation for the three pesticides. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1072–1087. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

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“…risk quotient) it is also used to predict ecological effect more directly (e.g. decline in species abundance (Mitchell et al, 2021). Dreier et al (2020) pointed out that the use of effect and exposure distribution allow for a competent risk assessment and communication approach.…”

Section: Evaluation Of the Bayesian Network Approach For Risk Characterisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Bayesian network for probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides

Mentzel

Grung

Tollefsen

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Conventional environmental risk assessment of chemicals is based on a calculated risk quotient, representing the ratio of exposure to effects of the chemical, in combination with assessment factors to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment approaches can offer more transparency, by using probability distributions for exposure and/or effects to account for variability and uncertainty. In this study, a probabilistic approach using Bayesian network (BN) modelling is explored as an alternative to traditional risk calculation. BNs can serve as meta-models that link information from several sources and offer a transparent way of incorporating the required characterization of uncertainty for environmental risk assessment. To this end, a BN has been developed and parameterised for the pesticides azoxystrobin, metribuzin, and imidacloprid. We illustrate the development from deterministic (traditional) risk calculation, via intermediate versions, to fully probabilistic risk characterisation using azoxystrobin as an example. We also demonstrate seasonal risk calculation for the three pesticides.

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Integrating Metapopulation Dynamics into a Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model: Assessing Risk of Pesticides to Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an Ecological Context

Abstract: This article is part of the special series "Applications of Bayesian Networks for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management" and was generated from a session on the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) in environmental modeling and assessment in 1 of 3 recent conferences:

Cited by 19 publications

References 50 publications

The Eco‐Exposome Concept: Supporting an Integrated Assessment of Mixtures of Environmental Chemicals

The Eco‐Exposome Concept: Supporting an Integrated Assessment of Mixtures of Environmental Chemicals

Development of a Bayesian network for probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides

Development of a Bayesian network for probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides

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