Integration of biological, economic, and sociological knowledge by Bayesian belief networks: the interdisciplinary evaluation of potential management plans for Baltic salmon

Abstract

Levontin, P., Kulmala, S., Haapasaari, P., and Kuikka, S. 2011. Integration of biological, economic, and sociological knowledge by Bayesian belief networks: the interdisciplinary evaluation of potential management plans for Baltic salmon. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . There is a growing need to evaluate fisheries management plans in a comprehensive interdisciplinary context involving stakeholders. The use of a probabilistic management model to evaluate potential management plans for Baltic salmon fisheries is demonstrated. The analysis draws on several scientific studies: a biological stock assessment with integrated economic analysis of the commercial fisheries, an evaluation of recreational fisheries, and a sociological study aimed at understanding stakeholder perspectives and potential commitment to alternative management plans. A Bayesian belief network is used to synthesize the findings from these separate studies and to evaluate the robustness of management decisions to different priorities and various sources of uncertainty. In particular, the importance of sociological studies in quantifying uncertainty about the commitment of fishers to management plans is highlighted by modelling the link between commitment and implementation success. Such analyses, relying on prior knowledge, can forewarn of the consequences of management choices before they are implemented.

Growing into Interdisciplinarity: How to Converge Biology, Economics, and Social Science in Fisheries Research?

“…The initiative came from the social scientist who had carried the main responsibility of the social science work in Steps 1 and 2, and who had both personal and scientific ambitions to see whether the methodological epochè was possible. She had received criticism from her social science colleagues who did Levontin et al (2011). Parts produced by different disciplines are indicated by different colors.…”

“…The model allows examination of how the results of the bioeconomic model (regarding optimal management) would change if the effect of the implementation uncertainty (resulting from fishers' commitment to alternative management objectives) were taken into account in a quantitative manner. The model also makes it possible to compare different management objectives and options in terms of biological, commercial, recreational, and social utility (Levontin et al 2011). not believe in integrative analytical frameworks in environmental problem solving and did not accept the paralleling of human behavior with interrelationships in the nature.…”

“…A conference paper was jointly written (Levontin et al 2009), and the model has been presented in conferences of different fields by each researcher of the team. Recently, a paper was published in a peer-reviewed journal (Levontin et al 2011) and the modeling has led to further project proposals. …”

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

“…Such assessments can be beneficial both generally and specifically, in guiding further investigations and providing a preliminary indication of the likelihood of policy and management success (Levontin et al 2011). The modelling approach used here assists with the identification of adaptations to increase long-term resilience in coastal communities through three 525 mechanisms.…”

The Role of Economics in Ecosystem Based Management: The Case of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive; First Lessons Learnt and Way Forward.

“…Bayesian networks, for example, are such a tool (Uusitalo 2007, Levontin et al 2011, Kragt 2013. Perhaps the systematic approach of combining environmental and economic aspects of the problem at hand is more valuable than the actual quantitative or semi-quantitative outcome of the CEA or CBA.…”