Integration of earth observation and census data for mapping a multi-temporal flood vulnerability index: a case study on Northeast Italy

Abstract

Climate sciences foresee a future where extreme weather events could happen with increased frequency and strength, which would in turn increase risks of floods (i.e. the main source of losses in the world). The Mediterranean basin is considered a hot spot in terms of climate vulnerability and risk. The expected impacts of those events are exacerbated by land-use change and, in particular, by urban growth which increases soil sealing and, hence, water runoff. The ultimate consequence would be an increase of fatalities and injuries, but also of economic losses in urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures and agriculture. Flood damages have different magnitudes depending on the economic value of the exposed assets and on level of physical contact with the hazard. This work aims at proposing a methodology, easily customizable by experts’ elicitation, able to quantify and map the social component of vulnerability through the integration of earth observation (EO) and census data with the aim of allowing for a multi-temporal spatial assessment. Firstly, data on employment, properties and education are used for assessing the adaptive capacity of the society to increase resilience to adverse events, whereas, secondly, coping capacity, i.e. the capacities to deal with events during their manifestation, is mapped by aggregating demographic and socio-economic data, urban growth analysis and memory on past events. Thirdly, the physical dimension of exposed assets (susceptibility) is assessed by combining building properties acquired by census data and land-surface characteristics derived from EO data. Finally, the three components (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity and susceptibility) are aggregated for calculating the dynamic flood vulnerability index (FVI). The approach has been applied to Northeast Italy, a region frequently hit by floods, which has experienced a significant urban and economic development in the past decades, thus making the dynamic study of FVI particularly relevant. The analysis has been carried out from 1991 to 2016 at a 5-year steps, showing how the integration of different data sources allows to produce a dynamic assessment of vulnerability, which can be very relevant for planning in support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

A Systematic Review of Spatial-Temporal Scale Issues in Sociohydrology

“…Social vulnerability generally measures how individuals and communities are able to withstand shocks, including natural hazards. Cian et al (2021) analyzed Northeast Italy's frequent flooding every 5 years using the flood vulnerability index, or FVI, which the authors claim to allow for a dynamic and adaptable assessment of vulnerability, necessary in preparation for the worst of climate change. Human development index (ZamanZad-Ghavidel et al, 2021).…”

“…Maps were defined as those not derived from remote sensing and were used the least (9%). In most cases, maps were used in addition historical or archeological studies (e.g., Nüsser et al, 2012;Baker et al, 2015;Chang and Huang, 2015;Caprario and Finotti, 2019;Cian et al, 2021;Gholizadeh Sarabi et al, 2021). Where historical and archaeological data was only used in 10% of the primary studies, by showing how human and water systems co-evolve over time, from ancient Rome (Di to West Africa (Coutros, 2019) to the Tarim River basin in Western China and beyond (Liu et al, 2014).…”

Earth Observation to Address Inequities in Post‐Flood Recovery

“…In tandem with establishing the EO data pipeline, the next step is to collect non‐EO data to supplement and contextualize the EO‐based recovery proxy . Measuring flood recovery requires coupling EO with non‐EO‐based data to contextualize baseline flood risk, socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and policies governing recovery mechanisms to critically assess inequities (e.g., Cian et al., 2021; Schwarz et al., 2018). Data translators play a vital role in this task to enable EO scientists and partners to co‐identify relevant non‐EO data sets to elucidate recovery trends.…”

Study on Livelihood Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies of Farmers in Areas Threatened by Different Disaster Types under Climate Change

“…In order to deal with climate change, the world set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is specialized in the research of climate change and its adaptation. Among them, as vulnerability and adaptation are keys in the cycle of disaster coping and disaster-risk reduction for residents now and in the future [17], more and more studies have begun to focus on the livelihood vulnerability of farmers and their livelihood adaptation strategies under the background of climate change [18][19][20]. Vulnerability refers to the extent to which a system or system components are unable to cope with adverse environmental impacts such as climate change or natural disasters [21], including the three components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability [22].…”