The koala Phascolarctos cinereus is the only member of the once diverse marsupial family Phascolarctidae to have survived the Last Glacial Maximum. A climate envelope model for P. cinereus was developed to predict the range for this species at present and at the Last Glacial Maximum. The model was compared to the contemporary koala records and the known fossil records of P. cinereus during the Quaternary. The predicted current core range for koalas was concentrated in southeast Queensland, eastern New South Wales and eastern Victoria. At the Last Glacial Maximum their predicted core range contracted significantly to southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Our findings concord with other studies that find species experienced range contractions during glacial maxima. In the context of the future conservation planning for koalas in the wild, our historical perspective demonstrates the past adaptations of koalas to changes in climate and their probable range contraction to climatic refugia. The future survival of wide-ranging specialist species, such as the koala, may depend on identifying and protecting, future climatic refugia.Key words: Climate envelope, climatic refugia, core range, koala, Phascolarctos cinereus, Last Glacial Maximum.
984Adams-Hosking et al.
Australian Zoologist volume 35 (4)
2011The role of humans as well as climate in determining the biogeography, evolution and extinction of faunas is an area of ongoing research, in particular the investigation of fauna-rich fossil caves to ascertain faunal responses to climate change during the Pleistocene (e.g. Hocknull 2007;Prideaux et al. 2007). These authors have revealed significant population fluctuations driven by glacialinterglacial cycling, but stable species composition for 500 thousand years, with the exception of the megafauna that went extinct around 70 -50 thousand years ago (Long et al. 2002). Research suggests that climate change alone was unlikely to have been the principal cause of the extinction of the megafauna and although Aboriginal hunting may have been a factor in determining the distribution and abundance of P. cinereus, there is no doubt that populations have been significantly affected by the European occupiers of Australia for the fur trade in more recent times (e.g. The modern koala's primary food source is a regionallyvariable selection of, primarily, Eucalyptus and Corymbia tree species (e.g. Moore and Foley 2000; Ellis et al. 2002). Koala populations are currently under threat from the synergistic threats of habitat loss, disease, car collisions and dog predation in coastal regions of Queensland and New South Wales (Jackson et al. 1999; Dique et al. 2003;McAlpine et al. 2006;Rhodes et al. 2008;Lunney et al. 2009). For example, the abundance of koalas on the Koala Coast of southeast Queensland is estimated to have declined by 64% in a ten year period (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008) (State of Queensland 2009). In western semi-arid and arid regions, koalas have been shown to exp...