Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

Abstract

Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.

The Power of Electricity: How Effective Is It in Promoting Sustainable Development in Rural Off-Grid Islands in the Philippines?

“…Sustainability assessments generally follow the monetary, biophysical, and indicator-based methods (see Figure 1) [47] with the monetary and indicator-based methods as the typical tools of choice when accounting for the social, economic, and environmental impacts of energy projects due to their flexibility in quantifying these dimensions [48][49][50][51]. However, as sustainability evaluations now adapt a multidimensional approach, the indicator-based approach is the most preferable tool in various studies due to its ability to capture the multifaceted nature of sustainability, with both quantitative and qualitative attributes already being considered in its measurement [52][53][54]. The indicator-based approach allows researchers to define attributes to sustainability that best fit the requirements of certain rural electrification projects, such as the case of hydropower projects that require indicators that uniquely influence the environmental aspect of installing hydropower plants [55].…”

Bridging the Gap: An Empirical Approach to Studying the Social Sustainability of Future Energy Systems

“…DCE and conjoint analysis have often been used synonymously in social science applications 3 . While we acknowledge the different traditions and theoretical foundations of both 3 Both methods have their origins in psychology and have been typically used in marketing to detect consumer preferences. In line with Green and Srinivasan [39], we acknowledge conjoint analysis as an umbrella term that includes a broad spectrum of approaches that "(…) estimate(s) the structure of a consumer's preferences (e.g.…”

“…The methods have, thus, proven to be more reliable than direct questions regarding the importance of specific attributes for individual choices [37] and demonstrate a high external validity [38]. DCE and conjoint analysis have often been used synonymously in social science applications 3 . While we acknowledge the different traditions and theoretical foundations of both 3 Both methods have their origins in psychology and have been typically used in marketing to detect consumer preferences.…”

“…Pathways towards more sustainable energy systems are based on energy scenarios from systems modelling approaches. In recent years, the awareness of the scenarios' enormous diversity in underlying assumptions, methods and scope has resulted in calls for more systematic assessments of scenarios with regard to possible ecological, economic and social effects [1][2][3][4]. Such multidimensional assessments can serve different purposes: They support the comparability of often very complex scenarios and explicate (un)desired effects of transition processes that are not included in the scenario studies.…”

Integrated Multidimensional Sustainability Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways

“…Such a comprehensive target provides new challenges from the extended system boundaries-sectoral, temporal and spatial. It is clear, however, that a multidimensional sustainability assessment of entire scenarios is also an important task if transformation pathways, which are sustainable in a broader sense, are to be developed [31][32][33][34]. A number of approaches to this have been developed and applied in the past: Life cycle assessment (LCA) is increasingly combined with energy system models (see [15] for more references).…”