In response to climate change, the limited availability of fossil fuels and the risks associated with nuclear energy, Germany's energy transition aims to achieve a sustainable, environmentally sound supply of energy services. A monitoring process was established by the Federal Government to ensure that the targets defined for the transformation will be reached. The indicator system developed for that purpose mainly focuses on "classical" environmental, economic and technological indicators for which statistical time series data and political targets are available. Important socio-technical aspects of the energy system and its transition, such as affordability, participation and acceptance, remain largely neglected. This paper aims to contribute to the discussion on indicators needed for political decision-making to appropriately address sustainability aspects of the energy system and its transition, as well as to contribute to improving existing indicator systems. Therefore, the sustainability rules of the Integrative Concept of Sustainable Development were translated into indicators based on an in-depth literature review. The resulting abundance of possible indicators was then reduced using selection criteria such as comprehensiveness, possibility to determine targets and availability of data. Finally, the indicator system was adjusted based on feedback of experts from different disciplines and stakeholder interviews in the particular investigation area of southwest Thuringia. Besides classical indicators related to techno-economic and environmental aspects, the finally developed indicator system includes new sustainability indicators related to the socio-technical interface of the energy system. Thus, it is considered suitable for assessing the sustainability of the Germany energy system and its transition in an integrative and comprehensive way. The indicator system is helpful to systematically identify strengths and weaknesses of the energy system and interdependencies and conflicts of goals between different sustainability aspects. All in all, we believe that applying the indicator system appropriately can support the development of resilient political strategies for a successful energy transition.

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Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.

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Background: The goal of the energy transition in Germany is to achieve a sustainable supply of energy. Providing advice for decision-makers to either continue the current transition pathway or implement strategic adjustments requires a comprehensive assessment tool. The authors have developed a Sustainability Indicator System (SIS) consisting of 45 indicators to assess if policy measures implemented so far by the Federal Government are appropriate and sufficient to achieve the energy policy targets and, furthermore, the sustainability targets defined for the German energy system. Methods: The assessment is carried out applying the SIS. For each indicator, a linear projection was calculated, based on the past 5 years for which data were available, assuming that this trend will continue in a linear way until 2020. Then, the projected value for 2020 resulting from the trend was compared to the political or defined target for 2020. The assessment was based on distance-to-target considerations, i.e. to which degree the set, proposed or desirable target will be met within the framework of the existing energy policy. The results are illustrated using a traffic light colour code. Indicators with less than 5 years of data available were given a white traffic light since no assessment was possible. Results: A profound view on eight selected sustainability indicators that are not already part of the German monitoring process 'Energy of the Future' and a comprehensive overview on the sustainability assessment of the German energy system are presented. The results show that 24% of the assessed indicators are rated with a green, 7% with a yellow, 45% with a red and 24% with a white traffic light. This means that it cannot be expected that the sustainability targets defined for the German energy system will be achieved by 2020 without substantial modifications of political strategies and measures implemented so far. Conclusions: The developed SIS is a comprehensive decision support and navigation tool with respect to long-term governance of the German energy transition. It aims to assess and monitor the overall sustainability performance of the energy system, to identify unsustainable energy strategies and measures as well as trade-offs and to evaluate the achievements or failures of policies regarding the energy transition. It can also be adapted to assess the sustainability of the energy systems in other European countries.