Intelligence Analysis in Red and Blue

Müller, David

doi:10.1080/08850600701648652

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Anderson et al (2005:266-276) provide a comprehensive explanation of the wide range of beliefs that should be considered as assumptions, ranging from our personal "stock of knowledge" or "common sense" through scientific knowledge that varies in terms of reliability. Muller (2008:2) provides illustration of this in his discussion of how "…a person's underlying set of beliefs, assumptions, experiences-even wisdom-about how the world works" affect judgments made by that person.…”

Section: Marshalling Of Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These discussions do not focus on the wide range of assumptions that are fundamental to how analysts determine meaning. Consequently, a reason for the apparent failure of the analysts to comply with these directions can be inferred from the discussion of Red-Blue analysts (Muller 2008), as well as the wide range of assumptions identified by Anderson et al (2005). That is, analysts are unlikely to equate their beliefs to assumptions (Muller 2008).…”

Section: Marshalling Of Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, a reason for the apparent failure of the analysts to comply with these directions can be inferred from the discussion of Red-Blue analysts (Muller 2008), as well as the wide range of assumptions identified by Anderson et al (2005). That is, analysts are unlikely to equate their beliefs to assumptions (Muller 2008). A comprehensive, in-depth understanding of all the elements discussed in Schum's treatment of inference and evidence is essential to promoting rigor in intelligence analysis and improving the determination of meaning.…”

Section: Marshalling Of Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Intelligence Analysis: Once Again

Mangio¹,

Wilkinson²

2010

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Intelligence analysis is defined as analysis carried out by intelligence organizations. The essence of intelligence analysis is determining the meaning of information to develop knowledge and understanding. The meaning derived from the analysis is used to address many different types of questions, which are categorized in variety of ways. A general classification of the questions, sometimes described as types of intelligence or analysis, includes strategic intelligence. The seminal publication for describing and explaining the processes and attributes of strategic intelligence is Sherman Kent’s 1949 book, Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy. The intelligence literature acknowledges that determining meaning is influenced by the analyst’s mindset, mental model, or frame of mind. A variety of factors influence mental models, including context and purpose, past experience, education, cultural values, role requirements, organizational norms and the specifics of the information received. A recurring theme in intelligence literature is the use of scientific methods in intelligence analysis and the discussion of the analytic process in terms of scientific methods. Key elements of the analysis processes include hypotheses, information research, and the marshaling of evidence, and how they affect the determination of meaning. Intelligence research also emphasizes the importance of rigor in analytic thinking. Despite the accumulation of a substantial amount of scholarly work on intelligence since the 1940s and 1950s, the literature has not advanced on the core aspect of determining meaning from information to address the full range of complexities in intelligence analysis.

show abstract

Section: Marshalling Of Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%