Interaction Between Historical Earthquakes and the 2021 Mw7.4 Maduo Event and Their Impacts on the Seismic Gap Areas Along the East Kunlun Fault

Abstract

On May 21, 2021 (UTC time), a Mw7.4 earthquake struck Maduo County, Qinghai Province, China. The rupture of this typical strike-slip event and its aftershocks along the Kunlun-Jiangcuo fault (JCF) propagated approximately 170 km from the epicenter. In this study, we calculated the coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes induced by 14 historical earthquakes and investigated their impacts on the 2021 Maduo source area. We found that the JCF is in the stress shadow of these historical events with a combined ΔCFS range of approximately -0.4 to -0.2 MPa. Since the seismogenic fault of the 1937 event is nearly parallel and close to the JCF, the rupture of the 1937 event had the greatest inhibitory effect on Maduo source area. We hypothesize that the actual loading rate at the depth of the seismogenic layer in the Maduo source area is much higher than the simulated value (0.3 kPa/a). Consequently, the Maduo earthquake still occurred despite the considerable delaying effect of these historical earthquakes (especially the 1937 event). Our findings also indicate that the tectonic stress in the eastern Bayanhar block is still rapidly accumulating and adjusting. Our investigation further reveals the enhanced stress induced by the historical and Maduo events with ΔCFS values of approximately 30~300 kPa and 50~300 kPa on the XDS and the eastern end of the EKF, respectively, not only on the MMS but also at the eastern end of each branch segment of the EKF. Hence, considering the accumulation of tectonic stress, we suggest that the seismic hazard in these two regions has been promoted.