Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

McCollum, David; Wilson, Charlie; Bevione, Michela; Carrara, Samuel; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Emmerling, Johannes; Guivarch, Céline; Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis; Keppo, Ilkka; Krey, Volker; Lin, Zhenhong; Broin, Eoin Ó; Paroussos, Leonidas; Pettifor, Hazel; Ramea, Kalai; Riahi, Keywan; Sano, Fuminori; Rodríguez, Baltazar Solano; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z

Cited by 164 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Within the transport sector, road transport is by far the biggest emitter, accounting for more than half of all transport-related GHG emissions. Rapidly growing mobility needs and private vehicle ownership counteract the global efforts to reduce global GHG emissions from transport [5]. Due to society's persistent reliance on fossil fuels, the reduction of global GHG emissions from transport to limit the magnitude or rate of long-term climate change will be more challenging than in other sectors [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Different types of EV (battery EVs, hybrid EVs, and plug-in hybrid EVs) have been compared to determine the vehicle technology that is likely to dominate in the coming decades [10]. Because integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been extensively used to explore decarbonizing pathways in the transport sector [2,3,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20], representations of technological advancement, consumer preferences, and increased market shares of EVs have been input to global IAMs [5,[21][22][23]. Current research clearly indicates the overwhelming importance of the role of transport electrification in a low-carbon transition.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

Zhang

Fujimori

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

212

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Electrification is widely considered an attractive solution for reducing the oil dependency and environmental impact of road transportation. Many countries have been establishing increasingly stringent and ambitious targets in support of transport electrification. We conducted scenario simulations to depict the role of transport electrification in climate change mitigation and how the transport sector would interact with the energy-supply sector. The results showed that transport electrification without the replacement of fossil-fuel power plants leads to the unfortunate result of increasing emissions instead of achieving a low-carbon transition. While transport electrification alone would not contribute to climate change mitigation, it is interesting to note that switching to electrified road transport under the sustainable shared socioeconomic pathways permitted an optimistic outlook for a low-carbon transition, even in the absence of a decarbonized power sector. Another interesting finding was that the stringent penetration of electric vehicles can reduce the mitigation cost generated by the 2°C climate stabilization target, implying a positive impact for transport policies on the economic system. With technological innovations such as electrified road transport, climate change mitigation does not have to occur at the expense of economic growth. Because a transport electrification policy closely interacts with energy and economic systems, transport planners, economists, and energy policymakers need to work together to propose policy schemes that consider a cross-sectoral balance for a green sustainable future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

Zhang

Fujimori

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

212

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“…Cambridge Econometrics, 2013Econometrics, , 2015Carbon Trust, 2005;Edenhofer et al, 2010). This is an issue that has been debated for many years (Grubb, Carraro, & Schellnhuber, 2006;Grubb, Edmonds, Ten Brink, & Morrison, 1993;Grubb, Köhler, & Anderson, 2002) While there is an ongoing debate on how to improve the realism of technological change and agent behaviour by using model experiments (Holtz et al, 2015;Li & Strachan, 2017;Li, Trutnevyte, & Strachan, 2015;McCollum et al, 2017;McCollum et al, 2018a;Pettifor, Wilson, McCollum, & Edelenbosch, 2017;Trutnevyte, 2016), none of these experiments challenge representations of investment, money and finance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use

et al. 2019

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Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models' outcomes to their origins in different macroeconomic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macroinnovation theory and group them into two classes: 'Equilibrium' and 'Nonequilibrium'. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall 'black box' critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere.Key policy insights . Quantitative models commissioned by policy-makers to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate policy generate contradictory outcomes and interpretations. . The source of the differences in model outcomes originates primarily from assumptions on the workings of the financial sector and the nature of money, and of how these interact with processes of low-carbon energy innovation and technological change. . Representations of innovation and technological change are incomplete in energyeconomy-environment models, leading to limitations in the assessment of the impacts of climate-related policies. . All modelling studies should state clearly their underpinning theoretical school and their treatment of finance and innovation. . A strong recommendation is given for modellers of energy-economy systems to improve their representations of money and finance. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…While the current policies have increased EV adoption, they do not fully exploit the potential of EVs. One reason is that in spite of incentives amounting to about 25% of the vehicle cost, BEVs still seem costly not only upfront but also on a lifecycle cost (LCC) basis, a plausible explanation for their slow adoption [4,8,9]. For example, the $7500 US federal tax credit alone amounts to a 20%-25% discount on the retail price of popular EVs in the US market today.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prioritizing electric miles over electric vehicles will deliver greater benefits at lower cost

Rajagopal

Phadke

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Cited by 164 publications

References 48 publications

The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use

Prioritizing electric miles over electric vehicles will deliver greater benefits at lower cost

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