Interannual and decadal SST‐forced responses of the West African monsoon

Rodríguez‐Fonseca, Belén; Janicot, Serge; Mohíno, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Bader, Jürgen; Caminade, Cyril; Chauvin, Fabrice; Fontaine, Bernard; Garcı́a-Serrano, Javier; Gervois, Sébastien; Joly, Mathieu; Polo, Irene; Ruti, Paolo; Roucou, Pascal; Voldoire, Aurore

doi:10.1002/asl.308

Cited by 142 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Even when the models were forced by the more realistic large scale forcing provided by the re-analysis the year to year fluctuations were not well reproduced. This seems to indicate that the internal dynamics generated by the models within their domains have more weight on the rainfall generating processes than the tele-connections which are well documented for this region Rodríguez-Fonseca et al 2011). Sylla et al (2010) found in their analysis of the RegCM3 simulations a better representation of the inter-annual variability of rainfall in West Africa.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

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Characterization of the rainy season in Burkina Faso and it’s representation by regional climate models

et al. 2012

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West African monsoon is one of the most challenging climate components to model. Five regional climate models (RCMs) were run over the West African region with two lateral boundary conditions, ERA-Interim re-analysis and simulations from two general circulation models (GCMs). Two sets of daily rainfall data were generated from these boundary conditions. These simulated rainfall data are analyzed here in comparison to daily rainfall data collected over a network of ten synoptic stations in Burkina Faso from 1990 to 2004. The analyses are based on a description of the rainy season throughout a number of it's characteristics. It was found that the two sets of rainfall data produced with the two driving data present significant biases. The RCMs generally produce too frequent low rainfall values (between 0.1 and 5 mm/ day) and too high extreme rainfalls (more than twice the observed values). The high frequency of low rainfall events in the RCMs induces shorter dry spells at the rainfall thresholds of 0.1-1 mm/day. Altogether, there are large disagreements between the models on the simulate season duration and the annual rainfall amounts but most striking are their differences in representing the distribution of rainfall intensity. It is remarkable that these conclusions are valid whether the RCMs are driven by re-analysis or GCMs. In none of the analyzed rainy season characteristics, a significant improvement of their representation can be found when the RCM is forced by the re-analysis, indicating that these deficiencies are intrinsic to the models.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Climate models are essential tools for understanding climatic processes and their evolution at a global scale (Hulme et al 2001;Rockel et al 2008;Vanvyve et al 2008;Rodríguez-Fonseca et al 2011;Ruti et al 2011). One of the first applications of global models were done over Africa with the experiments of Charney et al (1977).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of the rainy season in Burkina Faso and it’s representation by regional climate models

et al. 2012

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“…All of the above teleconnections from inter-annual to centennial time scales are important to understand the observed climate variability and climate changes in the 20th century and will also be relevant to understand projected future changes. The impact of the Atlantic-Pacific connection on teleconnections is also important as, during boreal summer months, the concomitant effect of the Atlantic and Pacific on remote regions as Sahel, has been found to produce counteracting effects affecting rainfall predictability ( [55,56]). In addition, it has been found how the Atlantic-Pacific connection affects over north eastern southamerican rainfall ( [57]) or boreal summer mediterranean rainfall ( [58]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

et al. 2016

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Abstract:In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO 2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

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“…There is disagreement concerning the models' ability to simulate mean climatology and the long drying trend since the 1970s, but universal agreement that the models ( Figure 21) cannot produce reliable assessments of future climate change in the region [99,208,212,215,[218][219][220]. Modeling efforts are hindered by the fact that there are multiple competing physical mechanisms, as described below [219].…”

Section: Large-scale Factors In Variability: the Role Of Sea-surface mentioning

confidence: 99%

The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability

2013

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The West African Sahel is well known for the severe droughts that ravaged the region in the 1970s and 1980s. Meteorological research on the region has flourished during the last decade as a result of several major field experiments. This paper provides an overview of the results that have ensued. A major focus has been on the West African monsoon, a phenomenon that links all of West Africa. The characteristics and revised picture of the West African monsoon are emphasized. Other topics include the interannual variability of rainfall, the atmospheric circulation systems that govern interannual variability, characteristics of precipitation and convection, wave activity, large-scale factors in variability (including sea-surface temperatures), and land-atmosphere relationships. New paradigms for the monsoon and associated ITCZ and for interannual variability have emerged. These emphasize features in the upper atmosphere, as well as the Saharan Heat Low. Feedback mechanisms have also been emphasized, especially the coupling of convection with atmospheric dynamics and with land surface characteristics. New results also include the contrast between the premonsoon and peak monsoon seasons, two preferred modes of interannual variability (a latitudinal displacement of the tropical rainbelt versus changes in its intensity), and the critical importance of the Tropical Easterly Jet.

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Interannual and decadal SST‐forced responses of the West African monsoon

Cited by 142 publications

References 24 publications

Characterization of the rainy season in Burkina Faso and it’s representation by regional climate models

Characterization of the rainy season in Burkina Faso and it’s representation by regional climate models

The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability

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