Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; Smedt, Florimond De; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.062

Cited by 73 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Nevertheless, the VHM depicts slightly lower performances both statistically and graphically as compared to the NAM model which might be attributed to its sensitivity to the quality of rainfall data. A similar study [19,33], conducted on Grote Nete catchment in Belgium, demonstrated the lower performances of the VHM model as compared to the NAM and PDM conceptual rainfall runoff models, which is comparable to the result obtained for this study. In addition, the HBV, VHM and NAM models were applied to predict the streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile basin at ElDiem gauge station and found that the NAM showed better performances as compared to the VHM [34].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…In addition, most of the studies conducted were based on a single conceptual hydrological model. Relying on single lumped hydrological model may lead to incorrect decisions for water resource management and planning, particularly in a data scarce basin such as the Upper Blue Nile basin, due to uncertainty in the model [18,19]. Thus, studies based on the use of multiple models may give a more concrete basis for decision making.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of Conceptual Hydrological Models in Data Scarce Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin: Case of the Upper Guder Catchment

Wakigari

2017

Hydrology

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Abstract:The prediction of dominant hydrological processes is imperative with the available information in data scarce regions by means of the lumped hydrological models for the purpose of water resource management. This study is aims at an intercomparison of the performances of the conceptual hydrological models in predicting streamflow. The Veralgemeend Conceptueel Hydrologisch (VHM) and NedborAfstromnings Model (NAM) lumped rainfall-runoff models were manually calibrated and validated for periods of 1 January 1990-31 December 2000 and 1 January 2001-31 December 2005, respectively. Some of the parameters of the models (i.e., recession constants of subflow components) were estimated from the preprocessing of the streamflow data using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). These parameters were used for the initial model setup and subjected to slight adjustments during calibration. The performances of the models were evaluated by graphical and statistical means. The results depicted that the models reproduced the streamflow in a good way and that the overall shape of the hydrograph was properly captured. A Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71 and 0.67 were obtained during calibration, whereas, for the validation period, NSE of 0.6 and 0.58 were obtained for VHM and NAM, respectively. The water balance discrepancy (WBD) of −0.1% and −13.7% were achieved for calibration, while −17% and −9% were acquired during validation for VHM and NAM, respectively. Though the models underestimated the high flows, the low flows were relatively well simulated. From the overall evaluation of the models, it is noted that the NAM model performed better than the VHM model in predicting the flow. In conclusion, the models can be used for water resource management and planning with precautions for extreme flow.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Conceptual Hydrological Models in Data Scarce Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin: Case of the Upper Guder Catchment

Wakigari

2017

Hydrology

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“…Carlo techniques (Bastola et al 2011, Dobler et al 2012, Velazquez et al 2013, Vansteenkiste et al 2014. Complexities and computational aspects involved prevent inclusion of all sources of uncertainty in one study, and we are not aware of any study where uncertainties originating from all sources in the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios to hydrological change have been quantified.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

Refsgaard

Sonnenborg

Butts

et al. 2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…However, they do not need as much data as the distributed models (which are unavailable in many cases), and the complexity and requirements to process them are lower. Furthermore, calibration of the lumped parameter models is much less time consuming and produced higher overall model performance in comparison to the more complex distributed models (Vansteenkiste et al, 2014). They are particularly useful in small data-rich catchments and are used in conjunction with field studies (Chiew, 2010).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of lumped hydrological balance models in peninsular Spain

Pérez‐Sánchez

Senent‐Aparicio

Segura-Méndez

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The assessment of inflows in a water resources system is essential for the appropriate analysis of its management.These inflows can be obtained from hydrological balance models. In this paper, we intend to perform a comparative study of six lumped hydrological balance models in several basins with different climatic conditions within Spain. Lumped models enable the estimation of catchment resources without using spatially distributed information that would not be available in 10 many cases. We have selected basins where long time series of climatic and hydrological data are available (more than 30 years) to calibrate parsimonious models, taking into account the stochastic behaviour of the natural streamflow and the climatic variables. The study period comprises 34 years . The explored models are Témez, ABCD, GR2M, the Australian water balance model (AWBM), GUO-5 parameters (Guo-5p) and Thornthwaite-Mather. Six statistical indices are applied to compare the results of the models: Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), root-mean-square deviation (RMSE), 15Pearson's correlation coefficient (R), percent bias (PBIAS), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) and the relative error between observed and simulated runoff volumes (REV). The results show that although lumped models can be employed in humid and sub-humid regions, the more humid the catchments are, the better the results obtained. Témez models provide the worst results in dry sub-humid and semi-arid regions. Guo-5p estimates runoff volumes with errors below 10% despite the unsatisfactory results provided according to the Bressiani classification. The Bressiani classification takes into 20 account different comparison criteria to help in the decision-making process when selecting a model. Nevertheless, the assessment of the margin of error in total runoff volume using REV is also a key index. The usefulness of Pearson's correlation when selecting a model is quite low but can be helpful in the analysis of models' weaknesses.

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Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

Cited by 73 publications

References 39 publications

Evaluation of Conceptual Hydrological Models in Data Scarce Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin: Case of the Upper Guder Catchment

Evaluation of Conceptual Hydrological Models in Data Scarce Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin: Case of the Upper Guder Catchment

Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

Assessment of lumped hydrological balance models in peninsular Spain

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